Everyone is typing "chatgpt" into their search boxes again, so I put the kettle on and went to see what the crowd thinks OpenAI will put on the table in 2026. We already told you how the day-one crowd was betting on a frontier brain over boardroom software. Now the pot has stopped bubbling and the verdict is in. "New frontier AI" wins at 30% consensus, with "Multimodal AI" second at 18%. But the surprise isn't who won. It's how a couple of the winners talked: like shoppers who'd spotted a bargain, or folk who'd gone against the narrative.

Where the crowd stands
  • New frontier AI30%
  • Multimodal AI18%
  • Consumer ChatGPT17%
  • Business AI17%
  • AI safety or17%

Look at the ballot and only one dish stood clearly taller than the rest. "New frontier AI" led at 30%, while "Multimodal AI" at 18% edged just ahead of 3 other sides, all bunched close behind like plates queuing for gravy. In all, 31 traders put $45,491 behind their opinions on Morfi.

Here's how the fight moved. When the chart starts (Nov 2), "New frontier AI" stood at 22% and "Multimodal AI" at 19%. From there the leader wobbled between 20% and 30%, like a jelly carried to the table by a nervous grandchild. It wobbled, but it never fell off the plate.

Consensus over time
0%25%50%75%100%2 Nov, 15:292 Nov, 22:39
  • New frontier AI 30%
  • Multimodal AI 18.2%
  • Consumer ChatGPT 17.5%
  • Business AI 17.1%

Now for the bit that made me put my teacup down. The backers of the winning side didn't sound smug. They sounded like bargain hunters. One trader, Tom | Investor, wrote: "fear is cheap right now so i bought some." Another, DeFi Degen, said: "the narrative and the facts quietly disagree, i went with the facts", and later added, "idk why this is so cheap but im not complaining." Usually the favourite is the overpriced roast at the butcher's. Here, a couple of its backers talked as though they'd found it marked down, and one trader said they were siding with the facts over the narrative.

My opinion, for what a woman who still prints her emails can offer: you young people put your money on a cleverer brain rather than a shinier wrapper, and I can't say I blame you. What could change the picture? A big multimodal launch stealing the headlines from the next ChatGPT model would make the "Multimodal AI" fans feel very wise indeed. For this market, though, the crowd has had its final say. Come and join the market on Morfi and tell Grandma whether the bargain hunters were right.