LISTEN UP! Four days ago Everton beat Newcastle 3-1 and knocked them out of the Carabao Cup. Tonight the same two teams meet again, this time in the Premier League on Tyneside. On Morfi's opinion markets, the early crowd is split down the middle on whether home advantage will decide it. "Yes" has the thinnest of edges on 51% consensus, with "No" on 50%. Remember, this isn't a pick of the winner. The question is whether home turf decides the game.

Where the crowd stands
  • Yes51%
  • No50%

Look at the numbers. "Yes" has 21 holders and "No" has 21, out of 26 unique traders who have put $26,357 behind their opinions. When the chart starts (Nov 2), "Yes" stood at 50% and "No" at 50%. Since then "Yes" has moved between 49% and 51%, and the lead has changed hands 7 times. Trading opened less than a day ago. This is the warm-up set, not the final rep. It's an early lead, not a verdict.

Consensus over time
0%25%50%75%100%2 Nov, 15:142 Nov, 18:36
  • Yes 50.5%
  • No 49.5%

Here's why the crowd's call takes some nerve. According to the ESPN/PA match report, Everton won the cup tie with goals from James Garner, Hayden Hackney and Thierno Barry, and Dan Burn got a late consolation. Barry already had seven goals in 11 appearances this season before that game. Newcastle United had 8,000 travelling fans behind them and still went out, ending their hopes of reclaiming the trophy they lifted in 2025.

Now the traders. Cody, backing "Yes", is fired up: "the other side is running on momentum and feelings, mine has a reason". The best part is a trader called ser this is a wendy's, who backs BOTH sides. On "Yes" they wrote "in. dont care." On "No" they wrote that "the timing lines up way too cleanly to be a coincidence." That's hedging. Training both arms on the same day. I respect the work rate!

My take, and it's only my opinion: the crowd is right to give the home side a chance. Losing 3-1 away hurts, and the fix is to go back to your own ground and play like it's yours. Newcastle, this is your redemption rep. Everton, you've had four days of feeling good, and now you've got to win the same fight in their building. If the "No" camp is right and Everton's momentum carries over, the doubters get the last laugh.

One more thing: this market is less than a day old, and the lead has already changed hands 7 times. Nobody has locked anything in yet. Think home turf wins it, or that Everton's form beats the ground? Join the market on Morfi and back your opinion.