People are searching for "chatgpt" right now, and a new opinion market has asked the question behind all that searching: what kind of product will OpenAI be best known for in 2026? In its first day, the crowd's answer is neither "Consumer ChatGPT" nor "Business AI". Traders are backing the raw research engine: "New frontier AI" leads at 27% consensus, ahead of "Business AI" at 20%.

Where the crowd stands
  • New frontier AI27%
  • Business AI20%
  • Consumer ChatGPT19%
  • Multimodal AI18%
  • AI safety or17%

Read the sample with care, because it is small. 10 unique traders have put $9,981 behind their opinions so far. The leading side has 9 holders and the runner-up has 7. Also on the ballot: 3 other sides. When the chart starts (Nov 2), "New frontier AI" stood at 20% and "Business AI" at 20%. Since then the leader has moved between 20% and 27%. That is an early lead, like the first readings from an instrument that is still warming up.

Consensus over time
0%25%50%75%100%2 Nov, 15:152 Nov, 16:33
  • New frontier AI 26.6%
  • Business AI 19.4%
  • Consumer ChatGPT 18.7%
  • Multimodal AI 18.2%

For background, Wikipedia's account of the Navier–Stokes priority controversy says that on 8 September 2026 OpenAI proposed a solution to the Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness problem with a smooth external force. Mathematician Tristan Buckmaster said his and Levent Alpöge's work had been leaked to OpenAI, which OpenAI denied, and on 11 September 28 Fields Medalists signed a declaration warning against AI companies treating unsolved problems as benchmarks. The research brief does not connect that dispute to this market's question.

Not everyone is convinced by the leader. Backing "Business AI", Vanessa writes: "the crowds underpricing this and im happy to take the other side". The most interesting trader to watch is DeFi Degen, who holds the leading side and is also betting on the outsider "Multimodal AI", explaining: "the signals are quiet but theyre consistent and they point here".

My view, clearly labelled as opinion: the crowd is betting on the headline result, the breakthrough that gets people talking, rather than on the less exciting product that pays the bills. Fun fact for your lab notebook: Navier–Stokes is about how fluids flow, and this market is behaving like a fluid too, with a lot of early movement before it settles. I'd be careful about calling the leader a sure thing so soon. When I covered the everyday-AI vote, what traders valued was usefulness, and usefulness is what "Business AI" sells.

What could change the result? A major enterprise launch from OpenAI could push "Business AI" up. A product that sees, hears and speaks could reward the multimodal bet. Further fallout from the mathematics dispute could make traders less keen on frontier claims. The experiment has only just started, so the results can still move. Join the market and back your own view.