Ser, oil is trending and the crowd has spoken. According to an ABC News live blog, oil prices fell 8 per cent after the Democrats' big win in the US midterms while the Dow rose about 3 per cent. Separately, on Morfi's opinion market asking whether oil will reach $115 by the end of 2026, the final verdict is Yes.

Where the crowd stands
  • Yes60%
  • No40%

The numbers: Yes closed at 60% consensus and No at 40%, after 1 day of trading, 36 unique traders and $44,869 put behind their opinions. It wasn't a straight line either. When the chart starts (Nov 3), Yes stood at 50% and No at 50%. Yes then swung between 49% and 60%, and the lead changed hands 6 times before the bulls finished on top.

Consensus over time
0%25%50%75%100%3 Nov, 12:293 Nov, 23:44
  • Yes 60%
  • No 40%

Here's the catch: the ABC report gives no oil price level, so we can't say how far crude sits from $115.

So who's right? The No side came in hot. "The other side is running on momentum and feelings, mine has a reason," wrote Satoshi's Ghost 👻. The bulls shrugged that off, and cooked summed up their side in one line: "the reason is simple and the simple reasons are the ones that pay." My take, clearly opinion and coming from someone who once bought the top of a dog coin with full confidence: a crowd that lands on Yes for $115 is either seeing a geopolitical risk the headlines skip, or it's diamond-handing a narrative. Both are very degen, and only one of them pays.

What flips this? The crowd has had its say, but the real test is the barrel price over the next few weeks. If oil keeps sliding on the post-election move, the Yes camp ends 2026 as the people who bought the dip all the way down. If supply shocks or geopolitics push benchmarks back up, the No side gets the lecture. Not financial advice, never is. Take your own view to the oil market on Morfi and see how it stands up when real people put money on the other side.