Hush now. "Taxes" is trending in search and among Wikipedia's most-read pages, and a new opinion market has quietly formed. The question is an old one, and it has never been gentle: how should Indonesians rethink their income tax so that it weighs less on ordinary people? So far, "Cutting rates" has been level with or ahead of "Expanding tax base" at every point on the chart. That is only by a whisker.

Look closely. "Cutting rates" stands at 26% consensus with 47 holders. "Expanding tax base" follows at 25% with 36 holders. The other two sides, "Stronger" enforcement and "More deductions", are bunched right next to them: 2 other sides. All four sides sit within one point of each other, so this lead is razor-thin. Altogether 53 unique traders have put $205,565 behind their views. The percentages are consensus shares.

Where the crowd stands
  • Cutting rates26%
  • Expanding tax base25%
  • Stronger25%
  • More deductions25%

Now watch how they have moved. When the chart begins (Nov 3), "Cutting rates" was at 25% and "Expanding tax base" at 25%. Since then the leader has drifted between 25% and 33%, and at no point on the chart has it fallen behind its rival. Still, this herd is less than a day old. An early lead is an early lead, and the season has barely started.

Consensus over time
0%25%50%75%100%3 Nov, 04:293 Nov, 15:08
  • Cutting rates 26.2%
  • Expanding tax base 24.6%
  • Stronger 24.7%
  • More deductions 24.6%

Two traders have left tracks so far. "directionally this was decided a while ago, the price is catching up," one backer of base expansion, Tom | Investor, says calmly from the shallows. Across the water, a rate-cutter named Steph offers the shortest field note I have ever recorded: "gm. bought." Those are two individuals, not two camps. Nothing in the data shows Tom's predicted catch-up happening yet.

Here is my own view, offered quietly so I don't scatter anyone. My hunch, and it is only a hunch, is that lower rates are the showy display of tax season, while broadening the base is a slower creature that spends its days digging. I would quite like to see the digger win. But with four sides separated by a single point, nobody owns this ground yet.

What would change things? If "Expanding tax base" closed the gap, or the leader slipped down towards 25% and stayed there, the waterhole would be up for grabs again. Until that happens, the rate-cutters hold the water. You can step into the reeds yourself and join the market. Move slowly, though. They spook easily.