Ladies and gentlemen, put your spoons down. People are searching for "weather" right now, though nothing in the research links that to this market. The opinion market on Morfi asking for the best comfort food in cold weather has delivered its verdict. The winner isn't the flashy main course. It's the side dish. Mashed potatoes took the title at 30% consensus.

Where the crowd stands
  • Mashed potatoes30%
  • Pizza25%
  • Ramen16%
  • Chili15%
  • Mac and cheese15%

Pizza, which started the chart narrowly ahead, finished second at 25%. The rest of the line-up, 3 other sides, never made it to the final tasting. In total 51 traders put $100,832 behind their opinions. Mashed potatoes ended at 30% consensus against pizza's 25%.

This cook-off was short. When the chart opens (Nov 2), mashed potatoes stood at 18% and pizza at 19%. On the chart the mash ranged from 15% to 28% before its final 30%, and the lead between the top two changed hands 1 time. Remember, all of this happened in less than a day of trading. That's a flash-fried verdict, not a slow braise.

Consensus over time
0%25%50%75%100%2 Nov, 12:593 Nov, 02:46
  • Mashed potatoes 27.8%
  • Pizza 25.8%
  • Ramen 16.3%
  • Chili 15.1%

Now for the strangest plate of the night. One trader called blob maxi backed pizza, explaining that "the math says maybe and the gut says definitely, im siding with both." The very same blob maxi then sold pizza, saying "someone left value on the table here and im picking it up." A chef who brings his signature dish to the judges and then quietly sneaks a bite from the other team's tray? I've seen a lot under these lights, but that one made me drop my ladle. When even a backer is hedging, the soufflé is going to sink.

My tasting notes, and this is pure opinion: this is the right verdict. Pizza is a Friday-night party trick. Mash is the blanket you pull over yourself when the sky goes grey. It's buttery and humble, it needs no delivery driver, and it has spent decades as a supporting act on somebody else's plate. Tonight it gets the spotlight.

Is the matter closed? The market says yes. But a crowd that settled the question so quickly could easily sing a different tune at the next cold snap. Maybe ramen gets its revenge, or Ashley R.'s game-theory hunch finally pays off. Think the judges got it wrong? Join the market on Morfi and put your money where your fork is.