ON YOUR FEET, PEOPLE! Novak Djokovic is 39, and he just became the oldest player ever to win a match at the Paris Masters. On the same day, a crowd on Morfi's opinion markets was asked whose return game they'd rather have, his or Roger Federer's. The verdict is in, and it went to the guy who's still out there grinding.

Here's the final scoreboard. Djokovic finishes on 60% consensus and Federer on 40%. In a straight two-way fight, that's a clear win. It came from 27 traders who put $28,762 behind their opinions, and the whole thing was done in less than a day. Short workout. Hard sweat.

Where the crowd stands
  • Novak Djokovic60%
  • Roger Federer40%

Look at how it moved. When the chart starts (Nov 3), Djokovic was on 50% and Federer on 50%. From there Djokovic ranged between 49% and 60%, and the lead changed hands 1 time. One Djokovic backer, gwei guy, put it this way: "dismissed because its inconvenient not because its unlikely".

Consensus over time
0%25%50%75%100%3 Nov, 16:543 Nov, 22:35
  • Novak Djokovic 59.9%
  • Roger Federer 40.1%

Here's the news that lit the fuse. ABC News reports that Djokovic beat Valentin Vacherot 6-7 (5-7), 7-5, 6-1 after losing the first set. Serving at 4-4 in the second, he saved three break points against a man fresh off winning the Swiss Indoors in Basel. ESPN calls the seven-time champion's escape a late scare overcome against a big server. Now the honest part, team. Neither report says a single word about return games, and neither compares him with Federer. The crowd isn't reading a stat sheet here. It's a gut call made while the comeback is still fresh.

My take, loud and proud: I LOVE this verdict. It's backing the guy who is still turning up and still digging out of holes at 39. Tough love for the Federer camp: "base rate says this. im in," wrote backer Derek, and the base rate came up short. Sitting on a reputation is like resting between sets. Your opponent keeps working while you sit there.

What changes the picture? Rinky Hijikata is next, and Alex de Minaur could be waiting further down the draw. If Djokovic gets broken repeatedly, or can't break anybody, people will start asking questions again. Until then the verdict stands. Got a different read on Federer? Join the market on Morfi, put your money behind it and argue it out!