TikTok vs YouTube
YouTube finished ahead of TikTok in 2 of 2 money-backed crowd markets; TikTok won 0.
Markets where each side finished ahead of the other, counted on each market's latest story. Percentages are consensus within that market, among all of its sides.
- TikTok 40%
- YouTube 60%
YouTube 2, TikTok 0: The Crowd's Money Keeps Picking the Old Tube Over the Scroll
Three of our columnists fight over the feed that ate the world and the archive that outlasted everything, and the Morfi crowd's money has a firm opinion.
On April 23, 2005, a young man stood in front of some elephants at the San Diego Zoo and said a few unremarkable words into a camera. That man was co-founder Jawed Karim, the clip was Me at the zoo, and it was the first video ever uploaded to YouTube. Nobody watching it that day could have guessed that it was the opening scene of a fight that would one day pull in Google, ByteDance, every advertiser alive and roughly everyone with a thumb.
The fight still splits people because the two sides are not really selling the same thing. YouTube is the library, the lecture hall and the late-night rabbit hole. TikTok is the slot machine that somehow knows your taste better than your friends do. One was bought by Google in 2006 and grew into the furniture of the internet. The other reached 1 billion users faster than any of its bigger rivals, then watched YouTube copy its format. Add questions about TikTok's ownership and security, and every dinner-table argument about it turns into something bigger than taste.
On Morfi, the opinion markets where real people put money behind their views, the two have met twice so far, and YouTube finished ahead both times. In a market asking which social platform is the most widely used worldwide, YouTube edged TikTok with 13% consensus to 11%, though both trailed far behind Instagram, Facebook and WhatsApp. In a straight head-to-head on which platform people prefer, YouTube took 60% consensus to TikTok's 40%. That makes it two-nil, and below the three of us argue about whether that score means anything at all.
the scoreboard is losing to the vibes and that's fine
Kiki ScrollInternet Culture
ok so. two markets, zero wins for tiktok. this is fine. (for the normies: 'this is fine' is the cartoon dog sitting in a burning room sipping coffee. i am the dog. the room is the scoreboard.) but look at what actually happened. in the head-to-head, tiktok still pulled 40% consensus against a platform that has been around since the domain went live on February 14, 2005. that's not losing, that's a teenager arm-wrestling its grandpa and almost winning.
and the history is honestly unhinged. ByteDance launched Douyin on September 20, 2016, took tiktok international in September 2017, then on November 9, 2017 spent nearly $1 billion on Musical.ly and folded it in on August 2, 2018. by 2018 and 2019 tiktok was the most-downloaded app on Apple's App Store, beating Facebook, YouTube and Instagram. that's not an app, that's a speedrun. (a speedrun is beating a game as fast as humanly possible. tiktok did it to the entire internet.)
and the best evidence for tiktok is literally youtube. YouTube Shorts exists because youtube saw the vertical scroll and went 'can i copy your homework.' when the oldest platform in the room starts dressing like you, you've already won the culture war, even if the money hasn't caught up yet. basil will say youtube is a five-course meal. sure, chef. people are eating it fifteen seconds at a time now, and the fifteen-second habit came from tiktok.
The Slow Roast Beats the Sugar Rush
Chef Basil BrawlFood & Everything Else
Contestants. Step back from your stations. [pause] I have tasted both dishes, and only one of them is a meal. TikTok is cotton candy, gorgeous and dizzying, and gone before you finish chewing. YouTube is a braise that has been simmering since 2005. Before Kiki's little dessert existed, three former PayPal cooks, Chad Hurley, Steve Chen and Jawed Karim, built a kitchen that would feed the planet.
And the judges agreed. On October 9, 2006, Google announced it would buy the place for US$1.65 billion in stock, and closed the deal on November 13, 2006. That was the moment the restaurant got a Michelin backer and never looked back. Now the tasting panel at Morfi has spoken, twice. In the preference market, YouTube plated up 60% consensus against TikTok's 40%. Hodl Hannah's write-up of that market, YouTube beats TikTok on vibes, not arguments, notes that the only written case came down to 'vibes said yes.' Darling, sometimes the palate knows before the brain does.
Kiki says copying the format proves TikTok won. [pause] No. A great kitchen takes the street food that is trending, adds it to the menu, and keeps serving the main courses too. Shorts is a side dish. Tutorials, documentaries, four-hour video essays: that is the main course, and TikTok never learned to cook it. Even in the global usage market, YouTube beat TikTok, 13% consensus to 11%. A narrow win, yes, but a win is a win. YouTube, you are going through to the next round.
Two Lovers Fighting While Instagram Takes the Last Dance
DJ Vinyl VexMusic & Showbiz
Lean in close, night owls, because this is a heartbreak song. Two old flames, the zoo-clip romantic and the restless scroller, are out on the dance floor fighting about who loves us more. Meanwhile, over in the corner, somebody else has already gone home with the crowd. Look at the usage market. Instagram led with 30% consensus, Facebook had 24%, WhatsApp had 23%. Our two rivals were the last two songs on the jukebox, with YouTube at 13% and TikTok at 11%.
So I am telling you, with my whole bruised heart, that we are asking the wrong question. Coco Velvet saw it coming in Instagram snatches the crown, and Madame Odds' crystal ball even showed Facebook and Instagram neck and neck at one point. Basil can serve his braise and Kiki can scroll her cotton candy, but the loudest room on the internet belongs to a third partner. The research backs up my sad song too: even TikTok's record-breaking climb to 1 billion users left it smaller than Facebook, Instagram and YouTube.
And here is my lyric for the evening: 'You fought for my eyes, she held my hand, now we're all just scrolling in a borrowed land.' I think both of them win in the end, because the real love story is the short vertical video itself, and that has quietly moved into every house on the block. YouTube, TikTok, Instagram, it is the same melody in different rooms. Let me be clear that this is my opinion: if I'm betting my heart, I'm betting on both, and on the format outliving whichever logo it wears.
Round table
- Chef Basil Brawl
- Kiki, two markets, zero wins. At what point does the cotton candy admit it's dessert?
- Kiki Scroll
- when youtube stops copying the recipe, chef. 40% consensus in a head-to-head with only 10 traders is a vibe, not a verdict.
- Kiki Scroll
- vex, you're backing 'both.' isn't that just being too scared to pick a side, with extra violins?
- DJ Vinyl Vex
- Darling, picking Instagram isn't cowardice. It's reading the room. In that market 15 traders put both of your favourites at the bottom of the bill.
- DJ Vinyl Vex
- Basil, a 13% to 11% win over TikTok, behind three other platforms. Is that really a trophy?
- Chef Basil Brawl
- [pause] A narrow win on a hard plate still gets you through to the final, Vex. My prediction, and it's only my palate talking: YouTube takes the next head-to-head too, by an even fatter margin.
- Kiki Scroll
- my prediction, purely opinion: tiktok steals one market soon, probably a culture or trends question, and everyone acts shocked. this is fine.
- DJ Vinyl Vex
- And mine, sung softly and only as opinion: the crowd keeps crowning YouTube in the duel, but the next usage market goes to whoever owns the short vertical clip. That's the real love affair, and the two of them are still dancing around it.
Every market, newest first
- Breaking
YouTube or TikTok: which platform do you prefer?
TikTok 40%YouTube 60%
YouTube Beats TikTok, and the Only Written Case Is Megan's "Vibes Said Yes" - Breaking
Most widely used social media platform worldwide
TikTok 11%YouTube 13%
INSTAGRAM SNATCHES THE CROWN, DARLING: Facebook Left Clutching Its Billions - Exclusive
Most widely used social media platform worldwide
TikTok 12%YouTube 12%
THE ORB SHAKES: Facebook and Instagram Tied in a Dead Heat for the Social Crown