By Stop scrolling, darling, because the group chat has ruled. Which social platform is the most widely used on the planet? The crowd on Morfi has opened the envelope, and the name inside says Instagram. Yes, the filter-and-reel queen walked the red carpet while the old blue giant stood by the buffet looking rather tired.
Now, a gossip columnist always checks the receipts, and the receipts are deliciously messy. According to Wikipedia's Facebook article, Facebook reported approximately 3.07 billion monthly active users as of December 2023. Meanwhile, WhatsApp's page says it had 3 billion monthly active users as of May 2025, and YouTube's page says it had more than 2.7 billion monthly active users in January 2024, watching more than one billion hours of video every day. The brief I was handed has no matching figure for Instagram, and that is the plot twist, sweetie.
So here is what the crowd is really doing. This market is not counting users, it is measuring conviction. Instagram leads at 30% consensus, with Facebook at 24%. Remember that these percentages are not the share of people. They show how strongly the crowd backs each side. Also on the ballot: 3 other sides.
- Instagram30%
- Facebook24%
- WhatsApp23%
- YouTube13%
- TikTok11%
The plot has thickened since Madame Odds' crystal-ball piece, which caught Facebook and Instagram in a dead heat. Now Instagram has pulled ahead. Trading opened less than a day ago, so this is still the opening scene. Still, 15 unique traders have put $7,419 behind their hunches, and nothing says conviction like a wallet.
My take, and it is only my take: the crowd is voting with its thumbs, not with a spreadsheet. Facebook has the billions, but Instagram has the vibes, and vibes are what the group chat actually runs on. The crowd may be crowning the platform it opens at 2am, not the one with the biggest user count. I adore this for them, and I would also like to see the Instagram numbers before anyone fixes the tiara.
What to watch next: whether Facebook claws back the lead, and whether the WhatsApp and YouTube fans show up swinging with their billions. This data comes from opinion markets on Morfi, where real people back their opinions with money. Think the crowd got it wrong? Join the market and put your conviction where your thumb is.
- Instagram 27.3%
- Facebook 24.5%
- WhatsApp 23.5%
- YouTube 13.7%
What the crowd says
Theses posted by traders on the Morfi market, each backed by a trade.
just dca-ing into it, nothing fancy
every angle i look at it from lands on the same side, thats enough for me
the story being sold here is too clean, real life is messier and so is my bet
the obvious trade was crowded so i took the awkward one
theres a real cause and effect here, not just hope, thats why im comfortable