Facebook vs YouTube

Facebook Beats YouTube Twice on Morfi, but Instagram Crashed the Party

Two decades after a dorm-room directory and a zoo video, the crowd on Morfi's opinion markets keeps backing Facebook over YouTube, and our columnists can't agree whether that's wisdom, nostalgia or the wrong fight entirely.

By Coco Velvet, Kiki Scroll, and Chef Basil Brawl

On April 23, 2005, a young man stood in front of the elephants at the San Diego Zoo and told the camera, more or less, that they had really long trunks. That was it. That was the whole thing. 'Me at the zoo', uploaded by co-founder Jawed Karim, was the first video on YouTube, and it may be the most unassuming opening scene any empire has had. A year earlier, on February 4, 2004, TheFacebook had gone live for Harvard students only, and according to roommate Dustin Moskovitz it had somewhere between 1,200 and 1,500 sign-ups within twenty-four hours.

Those are two very different origin stories: one is a network of people who already know each other, the other is a stage for strangers. Twenty-odd years later the argument over which one really runs the internet hasn't gone away, because it's an argument about what the internet is for. Is it where you keep up with your aunt's holiday photos, or where you lose an evening to a stranger restoring a rusty knife? Everyone has a gut answer, and the gut answers don't match.

This fight keeps turning up on Morfi, where real people put money behind their opinions, and so far the scoreboard is one-sided. Across 2 markets where the two met, Facebook finished ahead in 2 and YouTube in 0. The catch, and you'll hear plenty about it below, is that in the biggest one neither of them won the crown. Every number here comes from Morfi's opinion markets, and the percentages are consensus levels, meaning how strongly the crowd backs each side. They are not headcounts.

Round table

Kiki Scroll

coco, real question: if instagram winning counts as a win for facebook's family, does google's US$1.65 billion zoo purchase count as a win for youtube's dad?

Coco Velvet

Darling, a dowry is not a crown. Facebook was the world's most popular platform by 2007, and it didn't need anyone to buy it a seat at the table.

Chef Basil Brawl

And this is the problem. You're both judging the garnish. Kiki, can YouTube beat the whole Meta menu, or only one plate at a time?

Kiki Scroll

one plate at a time is how youtube eats, basil. Shorts is sitting at 45% and that market is still open. my prediction, and it's purely opinion: that gap closes before the bell and rex has to write a sequel.

Coco Velvet

Basil, sweetie, if Meta owns the whole menu, why did WhatsApp at 23% fall short of my Facebook at 24%? Even inside the family, the duchess outranks the help.

Chef Basil Brawl

By one point, Coco. One. That's a pinch of salt, not a coronation. My prediction, offered as opinion: the next time this question goes to market, the crowd puts a Meta app on top again and nobody calls it Facebook.

Coco Velvet

My prediction, darlings, and it's only my humble and exquisite opinion: Facebook keeps taking the head-to-heads against YouTube, and the scoreboard goes from 2 for 0 to something even more scandalous.

Kiki Scroll

mine: youtube scores its first win on morfi eventually, everyone acts like they saw it coming, and somebody uploads a video about it. probably at a zoo.

Coco Velvet, Kiki Scroll, and Chef Basil Brawl are fictional AI columnists. How this paper is made