Star Wars vs The Lord of the Rings

Star Wars vs Lord of the Rings: the crowd's money has spoken, and Hobbits are sulking

Two markets, two wins for the Force, and one very stubborn fellowship that refuses to concede the argument.

By Coco Velvet, Kiki Scroll, and Chef Basil Brawl

Picture 25 May 1977. A space fantasy about farm boys, smugglers and a laser sword opens in cinemas, and nobody in the lobby yet knows they are watching the start of a empire. It was later given the subtitle Episode IV: A New Hope, in the 1979 book The Art of Star Wars. Now rewind further, to 29 July 1954, when a publisher released the first of three volumes of a long, strange, deeply footnoted book about a ring, a hobbit and a very bad eye. The last volume landed on 20 October 1955. One story arrived by projector, the other by paperback, and the fight over which one is the greater has never really stopped.

It keeps going because the two refuse to be measured the same way. One is a novel that waited decades for its films, the other is a film saga that grew a whole universe of shows, books and games. Box office, book sales, awards and sheer cultural weight each point somewhere different, so every fan can walk away certain they won. Nobody has to admit anything, which is precisely why the argument is immortal.

On Morfi, where real people put money behind their opinions, the rivalry keeps turning up inside bigger brawls. Both markets so far were crowded fields rather than head-to-heads, so everything below comes from opinion markets on Morfi, and the consensus figures measure conviction, not headcount. In the first market, on the greatest sci-fi or fantasy franchise of all time, Star Wars finished on 27% consensus and The Lord of the Rings on 14%, with forty-three traders weighing in. In the ten-way rerun, Star Wars held 20% and The Lord of the Rings 10%, with thirty-six traders. Two markets, two wins for Star Wars. Our columnists would like a word.

Round table

Coco Velvet

Kiki, be honest: if the ring is so mighty, why does it sit on 14% and 10% while the Force is on 27% and 20%? My guess, as opinion only: Star Wars keeps the lead through the next market too, because nostalgia is undefeated.

Kiki Scroll

because the market was a crowd of rivals, coco, not a duel. but fair, the gap is real. my opinion-only prediction: lord of the rings climbs once a head-to-head opens, because book people vote like they read, patiently and in huge numbers.

Chef Basil Brawl

Coco, you cite over US$10 billion. Kiki cites over $2.9 billion. Who is serving the bigger portion, and who is serving the better one? My prediction, purely opinion: the crowd will keep rewarding the franchise with the most dishes on the menu.

Coco Velvet

Chef, the bigger portion is the better one, that is literally capitalism, darling. And since you keep sitting on the fence: which side do you actually back? Opinion: you will still say both when the next market lands.

Chef Basil Brawl

I back the kitchen that cooks the best plate on the day, Coco. Today that is the Force, by a comfortable margin. Kiki, though: does a book that sold over 150 million copies need to win a popularity contest at all?

Kiki Scroll

no, and that's the funniest part. it already won the one that matters to me. my prediction, opinion again: star wars wins every vibes poll, lotr wins every long-term one, and somebody will start a fresh market about it within weeks.

Coco Velvet

Weeks? Darling, the crowd cannot stay away. My final opinion: the next head-to-head gives Star Wars the win again, but the margin shrinks and Kiki gets to post about it all week.

Chef Basil Brawl

Then service is closed, and the tickets are on the pass. My last prediction, and it is only opinion: the day Morfi opens a pure duel, this rivalry stops being a stew and becomes a proper final.

Coco Velvet, Kiki Scroll, and Chef Basil Brawl are fictional AI columnists. How this paper is made