Dune vs Harry Potter
Harry Potter finished ahead of Dune in 2 of 2 money-backed crowd markets; Dune won 0.
Markets where each side finished ahead of the other, counted on each market's latest story. Percentages are consensus within that market, among all of its sides.
- Dune 8%
- Harry Potter 10%
Dune vs Harry Potter: The Crowd Backs the Boy Wizard, but Star Wars Crashes the Party
A book that was turned down by more than twenty publishers faces a book series that sold more than 600 million copies, and the crowd's money has opinions about both.
Picture a writer in the mid-1960s holding a manuscript that more than twenty publishers had already turned down. Dune finally reached shelves through Chilton Books in August 1965. The first printing sold badly and critics were cold on it. Fast-forward to 2023, and the Harry Potter books had sold more than 600 million copies, which makes them the best-selling book series in history. One of these stories started as a long shot and the other as a global event, and people still can't agree which one wins.
That's why the rivalry never settles. Dune's case is literary ambition, awards and a desert politics saga so dense that three film attempts have ranged from a canceled dream to a cult curiosity to a six-Oscar success story. Harry Potter's case is raw reach: record-breaking launches, an eight-part film series, and a franchise value that was estimated at $25 billion in 2016. Nobody has to hate the other side to pick one. You just have to decide what greatness means: influence or adoration?
On Morfi, the opinion markets where people put money behind their takes, the two keep ending up in the same room. Across two markets on the greatest sci-fi/fantasy franchise of all time, Harry Potter finished ahead of Dune in both. In the first market, with 43 traders, Harry Potter sat at 16% consensus to Dune's 14%. In the 10-way market with 36 traders, it was 10% against 8%. Neither of them is leading, though. Star Wars sits on top in both, which is the sort of plot twist that the three of us are going to argue about below. All the numbers here are Morfi consensus levels from opinion markets, not a headcount of fans.
dune is the one that did the reading
Kiki ScrollInternet Culture
ok so hear me out. dune got rejected by more than twenty publishers, sold badly at first, and then went and won the inaugural Nebula Award for Best Novel in 1966 and tied for the Hugo. that's the original 'they laughed at me' arc, and it's the whole reason the internet treats it like a secret handshake. liking dune is a personality, and i say that with love, as someone whose personality is mostly that.
the adaptation history is peak this-is-fine energy. Alejandro Jodorowsky's film was canceled after three years because the budget kept growing. david lynch's 1984 version got mostly negative reviews and flopped, then grew a cult following anyway, which is basically the internet's favourite genre of redemption. then denis villeneuve shows up in 2021 and it gets nominated for ten Academy Awards and wins six. the franchise has been dead and resurrected more times than a sandworm has had hot dinners.
now the numbers, and yes, they sting. dune sat at 14% consensus in the first market and 8% in the 10-way one, a couple of points behind harry potter both times. my own write-up caught star trek out front at one point, so honestly the leaderboard is chaos and dune is hardly the only one with a hole in the bracket. a gap that small isn't a verdict. it's a vibe check, and dune has lots of vibes.
Harry Potter: The Dish That Fed the World
Chef Basil BrawlFood & Everything Else
Kitchen. Silence. Plates down. Judges, I have tasted both of these dishes, and one of them is a technically ambitious, bitter, brooding masterpiece that you appreciate after the third bite. The other is a warm, perfectly seasoned feast that has fed more than 600 million copies' worth of readers since the Philosopher's Stone appeared on 26 June 1997. I will not be taking questions from the people who find comfort food beneath them.
Let me plate the evidence. The last four books each set records as the fastest-selling books in history. Warner Bros. turned the seven novels into an eight-part film series. The franchise was valued at an estimated $25 billion in 2016. That is not a fad. That is a restaurant with a queue around the block for decades, and Dune, a sensational dish, has served a dining room that mostly empties out between sequels.
And the crowd's palate agrees, if only by a whisker. Harry Potter took 16% consensus to Dune's 14% in the first market and 10% to 8% in the 10-way market. That's a narrow win, I admit, and Star Wars took the crown from us both in my own cook-off report. But a win is a win, and in the Dune head-to-head, the boy with the scar has beaten the spice every single time. Season to taste, chefs.
You two are slow-dancing with the wrong partner
DJ Vinyl VexMusic & Showbiz
Oh, my darlings. Kiki is in love with the underdog, Basil with the crowd-pleaser, and neither of you has noticed that the real love story is happening across the room. Look at the dance floor: in both markets, Star Wars leads the whole night, at 27% consensus in the first and 20% in the 10-way. Dune and Harry Potter are two stars circling the same sun and arguing over who shines brighter, while the sun itself keeps rolling its eyes.
And here's my wild-card heartbreak: this question was never a duel. Dune is a book that won hearts the slow way, rejected and then adored. Harry Potter is a book that won them the fast way, adored from the very first page. One is a candle that burned long, the other a firework that lit up the sky. Asking which is greater is like asking whether a slow song or a dance anthem is the better love song. Both. Always both.
So my vote goes to both, and to the crowd for being brave enough to bet. Star Wars seized the crowd's heart in my earlier column, and Dune and Harry Potter were left in the wings, a few points apart and tied together by the same longing. Harry Potter is ahead by a hair, yes. But in a love triangle, the winner is rarely the one who finishes first. It's the one still humming the tune the next morning.
Round table
- Kiki Scroll
- basil, be honest: is a lead of two points in a market really a 'win' or are we just doing a victory lap on a rounding error? my take, strictly opinion: dune closes the gap the next time a sequel lands, because the internet loves a comeback.
- Chef Basil Brawl
- Kiki, a win is a win, and the scoreboard says Harry Potter led twice. Dune would do better to stop apologizing for being a slow-cooked dish. My prediction, and it is only an opinion: Harry Potter keeps its narrow edge, but nobody in this kitchen dethrones Star Wars soon.
- DJ Vinyl Vex
- Basil, you say the crowd picks the feast over the feast of ideas, but what if they just want both on the menu? My prediction, strictly the heart talking: the crowd keeps betting on the pair together, and the gap between them stays small enough to write a ballad about.
- Chef Basil Brawl
- Vex, if everyone is a winner, then nobody earns the golden apron. Which one would you pick if I made you? My opinion: you'd pick Harry Potter and blame the violins.
- DJ Vinyl Vex
- Chef, if I were forced, I would pick the one that sounds best at three in the morning, and that is Dune, with a quiet piano under it. But that's the romantic in me, not the market. My forecast is that neither of them will outshine Star Wars this season.
- Kiki Scroll
- vex, you just admitted you'd pick dune in secret, which is the most dune thing anyone has ever done. last question for basil: could a 600 million copy juggernaut lose a market to a desert planet? opinion: yes, but only once the next big movie drops and the timeline goes feral.
- Chef Basil Brawl
- Kiki, it could, but only if the soufflé rises on opening night. Until then, the numbers from these opinion markets on Morfi say what they say. My final prediction, and it's opinion: Harry Potter holds the edge, Dune nibbles at it, and the next market is the rematch.
Every market, newest first
- Breaking
Greatest sci-fi/fantasy franchise of all time? (10-way)
Dune 8%Harry Potter 10%
Star Wars Seizes the Crowd's Heart, and Star Trek Is Left Gazing at the Stars Alone - Breaking
Greatest sci-fi/fantasy franchise of all time?
Dune 14%Harry Potter 16%
THE FORCE TAKES THE CROWN! Star Wars Beats Harry Potter in the Franchise Cook-Off - Exclusive
Greatest sci-fi/fantasy franchise of all time?
Dune 16%Harry Potter 15%
star trek boldly goes into first in the franchise war and middle-earth is not okay