Hush now. In the fading light of an election night, something unusual is happening at the waterhole. The small, fierce Putin pack that held the ground at dawn has given way. As we reported earlier, Putin's smaller camp led Trump in the first hours of this opinion market on Morfi. The crowd has now reached its final verdict, and it has turned the other way: Donald Trump closes at 60% consensus, Vladimir Putin at 40%.

Where the crowd stands
  • Donald Trump60%
  • Vladimir Putin40%

This was never a quiet grazing. When the chart begins (Nov 4), Trump stood at 50% and Putin at 50%. From there Trump's backing wandered between 45% and 56%, and the lead changed hands 3 times before the herd settled. In all, 58 traders came to drink, with $69,613 put behind their opinions, in a market that ran for less than a day.

Consensus over time
0%25%50%75%100%4 Nov, 06:595 Nov, 00:31
  • Donald Trump 56.1%
  • Vladimir Putin 43.9%

The weather around the waterhole could hardly have been stormier. ABC's live coverage of the midterms reports that the Republican Party has lost control of the House and Senate. Hakeem Jeffries, poised to become House speaker, called it a "stunning rebuke of Maga extremism." Meanwhile, Meduza reports that China has confirmed for the first time that it is negotiating a possible Trump, Xi and Putin meeting, possibly at the APEC summit in Shenzhen on November 18-19. None of these sources measures who people prefer, so the crowd's turn can't be pinned on any one headline.

Not every creature at the water's edge accepted the turn. Sarah K, who was selling Trump, warned that "the motivated party wins these, and one side here is way more motivated." She was one trader selling Trump, and the close went the other way.

Here is this ranger's opinion, whispered from behind the reeds: there is a strange beauty in the timing. On the day Trump's party lost both chambers of Congress, this market closed with Trump at 60% and Putin at 40%. The data doesn't say why, and a careful naturalist doesn't make up a reason. He simply notes the two events happening side by side and lets the grass sway.

This verdict is final, but the question isn't settled. A Shenzhen summit with Xi and Putin at the same table, or the last midterm counts, could give the next herd something new to argue over. If you think you can read the migration better, come and back your view with money in the opinion markets on Morfi.