Fans, check the scoreboard, because it doesn't match the headlines. Chelsea is all over the search trends, ESPN has an ESPN preview of the Premier League clash out, and the same page carries a headline about a Manchester United slump. Yet in the opening exchanges on Morfi's opinion market, United are in front. They're not winning on numbers, though. They're winning on conviction.

Where the crowd stands
  • Manchester United52%
  • Chelsea48%

Here's the tale of the tape. Manchester United sit at 52% consensus and Chelsea at 48%. The Chelsea camp is the bigger one, with 8 holders against United's 7. So a smaller group is backing its side harder and coming out on top. 10 unique traders have put $19,929 behind their opinions so far, and the market opened less than a day ago. Call it an early lead, not a final whistle.

When the chart starts (Oct 31), United stood at 50% and Chelsea at 50%. Since then United have ranged from 41% to 53%, and the lead between the two has changed hands 2 times. Early days.

Consensus over time
0%25%50%75%100%31 Oct, 06:5831 Oct, 07:29
  • Manchester United 52.3%
  • Chelsea 47.7%

That's a bold stance given the backdrop. ESPN's related headline reads "Carrick: Hard truths have been shared amid Man United slump," with Michael Carrick in the United dugout. Over at Chelsea, ESPN names Xabi Alonso as boss. The preview's main text didn't load, so team news and line-ups are still unconfirmed. As United backer Nicole put it: "the probability the market set doesnt match reality, thats the whole trade." The Chelsea camp is just as calm. "directionally this was decided a while ago, the price is catching up," says Sarah K.

My take, and it is only a take: I love this. A club stuck with the slump label, a manager talking about hard truths, and a small group of believers still outweighing a bigger crowd. Chelsea fans have the numbers and the buzz, but for now United lead with fewer holders.

What could flip it? Confirmed team news, a line-up surprise or a fresh wave of traders could swing this before kick-off. The board is wide open. Pick your side and join the market on Morfi.