The headline result is about what you would expect: Binance is the crypto exchange that feels most influential, according to an opinion market on Morfi where traders back their view with money. The more interesting line comes second. The runner-up is Kraken, not Coinbase, the other big brand in the field. Kraken finished second, a point ahead of Coinbase. The margin is narrow, though not narrow enough to swap the two.

Where the crowd stands
  • Binance30%
  • Kraken18%
  • Bybit18%
  • Coinbase17%
  • OKX17%

The figures: Binance finished at 30% consensus and Kraken at 18%. The rest of the ballot, 3 other sides, trailed behind. 20 unique traders put $29,035 behind their opinions, and the market settled in less than a day. That is quick, even for a sector that treats a week as long-term planning.

When the chart starts (Oct 29), Binance stood at 22% and Kraken at 20%. From there Binance moved between 19% and 30%, and the lead between the top two changed hands 2 times. Some traders did bet against the leader. One seller, Hailey, said simply: "odds are wrong. thats the whole trade." The odds did not agree with her.

Consensus over time
0%25%50%75%100%29 Oct, 15:5429 Oct, 17:40
  • Binance 30%
  • Kraken 17.5%
  • Bybit 17.5%
  • Coinbase 17.5%

The background makes Binance's win look a bit odd. Binance is described as the largest exchange by daily trading volume. It also pleaded guilty on 21 November 2023 to violating U.S. anti-money laundering rules, paid a $4.3 billion fine, and saw founder Changpeng Zhao step down as CEO. Coinbase, meanwhile, was founded in 2012, listed on Nasdaq on April 14, 2021, and is described as the world's biggest bitcoin custodian. A long résumé, it turns out, does not guarantee a podium finish.

My view, labelled as such: the result speaks for itself, even if it does not explain itself. Binance, which according to Forbes had 120 million users in June 2023, still came out on top despite the fine. Kraken coming second over Coinbase, though, is a result I cannot explain from the brief, and I do not plan to make up a reason.

The verdict is in, but it formed in under a day, and a quick consensus can be a thin one. Testing Coinbase's one-point deficit would take a new market with more traders. Readers who would like to take that on are welcome to try it on a new opinion market.