Star Trek vs The Lord of the Rings
Star Trek finished ahead of The Lord of the Rings in 1 of 2 money-backed crowd markets; The Lord of the Rings won 0, and 1 ended level.
Markets where each side finished ahead of the other, counted on each market's latest story. Percentages are consensus within that market, among all of its sides.
- Star Trek 11%
- The Lord of the Rings 10%
Star Trek vs Middle-earth: the crowd's money can't split them, and Star Wars laughs
Two of the most beloved franchises ever made keep landing within a whisker of each other on Morfi, and a third empire keeps crashing the party.
Picture New York City, January 1972. The organisers of the first Star Trek convention had planned for a few hundred fans. Several thousand turned up. This was a show that NBC had canceled after three seasons and 79 episodes, despite a letter-writing campaign led by Bjo Trimble, and it was somehow drawing a bigger crowd dead than most shows manage alive. That is the kind of stubborn devotion we are dealing with when we put Star Trek in the ring.
In the other corner stands Middle-earth. Peter Jackson shot the whole Lord of the Rings trilogy at once in New Zealand, from October 11, 1999, until December 22, 2000, on a budget of $281 million, according to the film series' Wikipedia entry. Nobody has formally declared a rivalry here. It is a fan argument that never ends: starship or sword, optimism or doom, a future we might build or a past that never was. Everyone has a side, and everyone is annoyingly sure.
On Morfi, where people back their opinions with money, the argument keeps returning. Two markets, both asking for the greatest sci-fi or fantasy franchise of all time, put the pair side by side. The numbers below are Morfi consensus, meaning the crowd's conviction, and they come from opinion markets, not from any official poll. In the first market, with 43 traders, Star Trek and The Lord of the Rings tied at 14%. In the second, with 36 traders, Star Trek edged ahead 11% to 10%. Kiki Scroll cheered the early Star Trek surge. Hold that thought, because the real winner in both markets wasn't either of them.
Love Song for a Starship
DJ Vinyl VexMusic & Showbiz
Listen, friends, some love stories begin with a kiss and some begin with a cancellation notice. Star Trek premiered on September 8, 1966, on NBC, after Canada's CTV network got the first dance two days earlier, and then the network broke its heart. Fans wrote letters, led by Bjo Trimble, and won the show a second season. Three seasons later it was gone anyway. And the crowd would not let go. That is not a franchise, darling. That is a slow dance that outlasted the band.
Now follow the melody. Star Trek: The Motion Picture arrived in December 1979 with mixed reviews and $139 million worldwide. That was below expectations, but it was enough to earn a sequel. Then The Wrath of Khan came, cost less and made more profit, and the whole romance flipped. In 1987 The Next Generation set sail a century after the original and pulled the highest ratings of any Star Trek series. Cancelled, doubted, rebooted in 2009 into the Kelvin timeline, and still the ship keeps coming back for us. Tell me that is not devotion.
The money agrees, in its shy, stammering way. In the first market Star Trek and Middle-earth tied at 14%, two hearts beating in perfect rhythm. In the second, Star Trek stepped forward, 11% to 10%. A single point, but I have written about how this crowd was swept off its feet by Star Wars and left my beloved gazing at the stars alone. A one-point lead is a held hand in the dark, and I will take it. This is my opinion, and my heart's.
The Ring Sees All (And Is Mildly Behind)
Madame OddsOmens & Oddities
Gather close, seekers. I have gazed into the crystal ball, and it shows a vast green country, a long road and a small thing of gold that ruins everyone who touches it. The Lord of the Rings is not a franchise. It is a prophecy with a catering budget. Peter Jackson filmed the entire trilogy in one continuous campaign in New Zealand, from October 11, 1999, to December 22, 2000, with $281 million riding on it. Only a fool or a visionary bets that much on three films shot as one, and the tarot says he was both.
Now, the omen the Star Trek faithful cling to: in the second market, the Enterprise leads Middle-earth, 11% to 10%. Tremble! The ring is humbled! Except that the same cards, drawn earlier, showed a perfect tie at 14% each, and the gap between them is a single point among a crowd of just 36 traders. My crystal ball would call that a smudge on the glass. Even the ball cannot read a one-point prophecy.
Here is what I do see, in opinion only: fantasy is patient. Star Trek needed conventions, reboots and sequels to keep its flame alive, and Tolkien's world keeps its flame without asking. When the crowd comes back for a third market, the ring will still be lying in the road, waiting for the next hand. And yes, Vex, I saw you weeping into the turntable. Save the tears. A one-point lead is not a victory.
Darling, You're Asking the Wrong Question
Coco VelvetCulture & Entertainment
Come closer, because I'm only saying this once. Everyone is fighting over who beat whom by a single point, and meanwhile the actual winner is sitting in the corner sipping something expensive. In the first market Star Wars held 27%. In the ten-way rematch it held 20%. Star Trek managed 14% and then 11%, and Middle-earth managed 14% and then 10%. They are fighting for the silver medal in a race that has a clear winner. Chef Basil Brawl already announced the coronation, and not one of you sent flowers.
And there's a deeper problem, sweetie. Comparing Star Trek to The Lord of the Rings is like asking whether you prefer a cocktail or a campfire. One is about the future we're meant to grow into, the other about a past that never happened. The crowd is lumping them together under a single heading, sci-fi and fantasy, as if the two had ever shared a dressing room. Even Star Trek knows how to dodge a loaded question: in 2009 it rebooted into an alternate timeline, the Kelvin timeline, and just kept on going.
So my side is the third one: both, and neither. Both deserve better than a tiny two-way spat, and neither deserves to be judged in a market where one franchise got nearly twice the consensus. If you must pick, pick the question next time. Ask what kind of world you want to live in, and see who shows up. That's just my opinion, of course, but I always look fabulous giving it.
Round table
- Coco Velvet
- Vex, honestly: your beloved is a point ahead in one market and tied in the other. Is that a love story or a rounding error?
- DJ Vinyl Vex
- Coco, every great love story starts as a rounding error. A tie, then a lead. Next market I predict Star Trek holds that lead, though that's the romantic in me talking, not the ledger.
- DJ Vinyl Vex
- Madame, you called the one-point gap a smudge. Would you still say that if the ring were the one ahead?
- Madame Odds
- Ha! No, I would shout it from the mountain. But the cards stay honest: one point and a small crowd are not a verdict. My prediction, purely opinion: Middle-earth pulls level or ahead the next time fantasy gets its own market.
- Madame Odds
- Coco, if the question is wrong, what is the right one? Be specific, I have a crystal ball and it is waiting.
- Coco Velvet
- Which of these would you actually want to spend an evening in, darling? That's the real market. And my prediction: Star Wars keeps the top spot, and the pair will keep squabbling over second like cousins at a wedding.
- Madame Odds
- A bold forecast, since you stole it from the numbers. Mine is that Star Wars stays on top and the other two stay close enough to make every future market a nail-biter.
- DJ Vinyl Vex
- And if the heavens align, my final prediction is a head-to-head market where Star Trek and Middle-earth finally face each other without Star Wars crashing the dance. Opinion only, but I'd put my heart on it.
Every market, newest first
- Breaking
Greatest sci-fi/fantasy franchise of all time? (10-way)
Star Trek 11%The Lord of the Rings 10%
Star Wars Seizes the Crowd's Heart, and Star Trek Is Left Gazing at the Stars Alone - Breaking
Greatest sci-fi/fantasy franchise of all time?
Star Trek 14%The Lord of the Rings 14%
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Greatest sci-fi/fantasy franchise of all time?
Star Trek 22%The Lord of the Rings 16%
star trek boldly goes into first in the franchise war and middle-earth is not okay