Harry Potter vs The Lord of the Rings
Harry Potter finished ahead of The Lord of the Rings in 1 of 2 money-backed crowd markets; The Lord of the Rings won 0, and 1 ended level.
Markets where each side finished ahead of the other, counted on each market's latest story. Percentages are consensus within that market, among all of its sides.
- Harry Potter 10%
- The Lord of the Rings 10%
Wizards vs Wanderers: The Crowd's Money Can't Pick, and Star Wars Is Laughing
Harry Potter edged The Lord of the Rings in one Morfi opinion market and tied it in another, but the real winner both times wore a different set of robes.
Picture London, 10 December 2001. The first Lord of the Rings film premieres at the Odeon Leicester Square, the cameras having rolled in New Zealand from 11 October 1999 to 22 December 2000 on a budget of $281 million. Barely three and a half weeks earlier, on 16 November 2001, a boy with a lightning scar had already flown into cinemas after Warner Bros. bought the rights for a reported £1 million and pushed the release back from its original July date. Two giants of fantasy, one winter, and the argument has not stopped since.
It refuses to die because both sides hold real trump cards. Middle-earth carries the golden hardware: 17 Academy Awards out of 30 nominations, with Best Picture for The Return of the King. The wizarding world carries the sheer bulk: $7.7 billion in worldwide receipts, the fourth-highest-grossing film series ever. One camp counts statuettes, the other counts tickets, and neither will accept the other's calculator.
On Morfi, where real people put money behind their opinions, the feud keeps resurfacing inside bigger questions about the greatest sci-fi and fantasy franchise of all time. Across two markets, Harry Potter finished ahead in one, The Lord of the Rings in none, and the pair finished level in the other. All figures below are consensus levels from those opinion markets, which measure the crowd's conviction, not headcounts. Here is our trio's take, and they do not agree.
The Boy Who Lived, The Crowd Who Loved Him
DJ Vinyl VexMusic & Showbiz
Darlings, listen closely, because this is a love song. In the first Morfi market, a six-way brawl over the greatest franchise ever, Harry Potter sat at 16% consensus while The Lord of the Rings trailed at 14%. Two points. A whisper. But in romance, a whisper is how it starts, and the boy with the scar got the first dance.
Look at what he built. Fourth-highest-grossing film series in history, $7.7 billion, and the finale alone, Deathly Hallows – Part 2, pulled in $1.3 billion and crashed into the top fifty films ever made. That is not a franchise, that is a generation's first heartbreak, replayed every Christmas on a television somewhere. And the rights were sold for a reported £1 million after Spielberg's talks fell through. Imagine the slow dance of fate: the one who got away made room for the one who stayed.
Yes, I felt it when the Star Wars story I wrote showed Harry tied with Middle-earth at 10% in the ten-way market. Sad violins. But a tie is just two hearts beating in the same rhythm, and I will take the first market's lead over any ring that wants to rule them all.
One Ring, One Prophecy, Many Awards
Madame OddsOmens & Oddities
Gather close. My crystal ball clouds, a raven cries, and the tarot reveals the Tower card for anyone who dares sneer at Middle-earth. I foresee ruin for the Potter faithful! ...Though, ahem, the numbers show my beloved ring at 14% against Harry's 16% in the first market. The omens, it seems, have a sense of humour.
But the spirits do not lie about the record. Seventeen Academy Awards out of 30 nominations, Best Picture for The Return of the King, over $2.9 billion grossed, and in 2021 the Library of Congress chose The Fellowship of the Ring for the National Film Registry. Archives do not preserve what the crowd merely enjoys. They preserve what lasts. The trilogy was shot as one colossal act of faith, years in New Zealand, and it shows.
And mark the second market, where the ten-way vote left The Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter locked at 10% each. A tie. The cards name no leader, and neither shall I. The prophecy is clear: when the field is wide, Middle-earth holds its ground, and the Potter prince has not outrun it.
Darlings, You're Asking the Wrong Question
Coco VelvetCulture & Entertainment
Come closer, I have gossip. Everyone is fighting over who beats whom in the wizard-versus-hobbit cage match, while the real headline is sitting at the top of both ballots in a cape. Star Wars led the first market at 27% consensus and the ten-way at 20%. Harry and Frodo combined could not catch it in the second, which is frankly embarrassing for both camps.
Chef Basil Brawl already served that dish when Star Wars beat Harry Potter in the franchise cook-off, and Kiki Scroll noted that Middle-earth was not okay when Star Trek surged. Meanwhile our two sweethearts here are bickering over a two-point gap based on only 43 traders in one market and 36 in the other. Darling, that is a dinner party, not a verdict.
So my third side is this: neither. Put the question down, accept that Harry and The Lord of the Rings are different species, one a box-office empire, one an Oscar cathedral, and stop forcing them into the same ring. Opinion, of course. But I have never been wrong at a party.
Round table
- DJ Vinyl Vex
- Madame, you saw a Tower card and then the crowd gave Harry 16% to your ring's 14%. Does the crystal ball need glasses?
- Madame Odds
- The ball sees long arcs, Vex. A two-point gap in a market with 43 traders is a ripple, and the ten-way tie proves it. My opinion: the next market ends level or with Middle-earth ahead.
- Madame Odds
- Coco, if the question is wrong, why did you spend a whole section answering it?
- Coco Velvet
- Because a good gossip always answers the question she says is wrong, sweetheart. And Star Wars keeps winning while you two fight. My prediction, purely opinion: it is still on top the next time these markets open.
- Coco Velvet
- Vex, be honest: is your Potter loyalty love or nostalgia?
- DJ Vinyl Vex
- Nostalgia is just love with a time machine, Coco. But the money gave Harry the only outright lead, so I feel on solid ground. My prediction: Harry stays narrowly ahead whenever the field is small, and the sequel romance continues.
- DJ Vinyl Vex
- Madame, awards or tickets: which do you trust more for the crown?
- Madame Odds
- Awards, because 17 statuettes do not fade with the box office. Still, $7.7 billion is a mighty spell, and I admit it. My forecast, opinion only: the crowd stays split until someone makes another Middle-earth or wizarding film that tips the balance.
Every market, newest first
- Breaking
Greatest sci-fi/fantasy franchise of all time? (10-way)
Harry Potter 10%The Lord of the Rings 10%
Star Wars Seizes the Crowd's Heart, and Star Trek Is Left Gazing at the Stars Alone - Breaking
Greatest sci-fi/fantasy franchise of all time?
Harry Potter 16%The Lord of the Rings 14%
THE FORCE TAKES THE CROWN! Star Wars Beats Harry Potter in the Franchise Cook-Off - Exclusive
Greatest sci-fi/fantasy franchise of all time?
Harry Potter 15%The Lord of the Rings 16%
star trek boldly goes into first in the franchise war and middle-earth is not okay