Chelsea FC vs Manchester City FC
Manchester City FC finished ahead of Chelsea FC in 1 of 2 money-backed crowd markets; Chelsea FC won 0, and 1 ended level.
Markets where each side finished ahead of the other, counted on each market's latest story. Percentages are consensus within that market, among all of its sides.
- Chelsea FC 18%
- Manchester City FC 18%
Porto Ghosts vs Treble Muscle: Crowd Money Leans City, But Chelsea Won't Go Away
Chelsea have the night in Porto and City have the trophy cabinet that won't stop growing, so two of our columnists fight it out over what the Morfi crowd's money says about this rivalry.
Porto, 29 May 2021. Three minutes before half-time in the biggest club final in Europe, Kai Havertz takes the ball round the goalkeeper and rolls it into an empty net. That was the only goal. Chelsea won the 2021 UEFA Champions League final 1–0, and Manchester City's first ever European Cup final ended with them watching blue shirts lift the trophy. A few weeks earlier Chelsea had also beaten City 1–0 in the FA Cup semi-final, which ended City's hopes of an unprecedented quadruple. Two 1–0 wins that spring did a lot to shape how this rivalry is argued about.
The argument hasn't gone away because each club can point to something the other lacks. City have the long haul: in 2022–23 they won a third straight Premier League title with three games to spare, something only Manchester United had done before in the Premier League era, and then finished off a treble. Chelsea have the knockout nights, starting with the 1970–71 Cup Winners' Cup semi-final, when they beat City 1–0 in both legs on the way to their first European trophy, and running all the way to Porto. City's fans talk about consistency. Chelsea's fans talk about the finals.
On Morfi, the opinion markets where real people put money behind what they think, the two clubs have met twice so far. City finished ahead in one, the other is level, and Chelsea haven't come out on top in either. In the 2026–27 Premier League title market City got 19% consensus and Chelsea got 15%. In the Women's Champions League contenders market, which is still trading, Chelsea and Man City are tied on 18% each. So the crowd leans towards City, but only just. Our two columnists explain why that lean is either correct or a big mistake.
Big Stage, Blue Wins: Chelsea Show Up on Final Day
Dex BlitzSports & Esports
Chelsea fans, let me take you back to Porto, because what happened there tells you what this club is about. City had the possession, the reputation and the momentum of a whole season. Chelsea had a plan, a back line that held firm and one finish from Kai Havertz on the stroke of half-time. It finished 1–0 and gave Chelsea their second Champions League title after 2012. In a one-off final, that's what matters.
And it had happened before. In the 1970–71 Cup Winners' Cup semi-final, Chelsea beat City 1–0 home and away and then went on to win their first European trophy. In the 2021 FA Cup semi-final they beat City 1–0 again and stopped a quadruple before it got going. I'm seeing a pattern here. City win the Community Shields, which they did in 2012 and 2018, and Chelsea win the matches that decide the big trophies. Coach Tank can keep the curtain-raisers.
Now the market numbers, and I won't pretend about them. In the 2026–27 title market the crowd gave City 19% consensus and Chelsea 15%, with both clubs behind Arsenal on 30%. I called it in my piece on Arsenal flying out of the blocks: this is a crowded race and City are a long way from running away with it. That's only a four-point gap. And in the Women's Champions League market, Chelsea and Man City are level on 18%. That's a tie, and a tie is one well-timed goal away from a win, which is exactly how Chelsea like it.
There's also a bit of history the City fans tend to skip over. In 2021 Chelsea became the first club ever to have both their men's and women's teams reach the Champions League final in the same season. City were not the club that did that. So to the crowd I'd say this: when Chelsea get to a final, it hasn't usually been a good idea to bet against them.
Three Titles in a Row. Then a Treble. Get Your Reps In!
Coach TankSport & Fitness
LISTEN UP! Dex wants to talk about one night in Porto. Fine. I want to talk about every week of the season! In 2022–23 City won a THIRD STRAIGHT league title WITH THREE GAMES TO SPARE. Only one other club had done that in the Premier League era. Then they won the TREBLE! That's a club that keeps showing up and doing the work, all season, every season!
Cup finals? We've got those too. The 2019 EFL Cup final finished goalless after extra time and CITY won it on penalties. That takes NERVE. Add the 2012 and 2018 Community Shields, which also went to City. Dex calls them curtain-raisers. I call them TROPHIES, and you win a trophy by beating whoever's in front of you!
Now look at the money! City finished ahead in one of the two markets. Chelsea finished ahead in ZERO. On the title, the crowd's conviction put City on 19% and Chelsea on 15%. Four points ahead. And yes, I wrote the piece on Arsenal topping the table with United chasing, so I know City sit third in that race. That's motivation, not an excuse! Third place means there's ground to make up, so make it up!
Women's Champions League: Chelsea 18%, Man City 18%. A TIE. I'm not going to claim a winner, because a tie isn't a win, Dex, and that goes for your side as much as mine. Here's some tough love for Chelsea anyway. A great night in 2021 doesn't win you anything in 2026–27. The crowd backs whoever turns up and performs week in, week out, and on Morfi that's been City. One more lap, Chelsea!
Round table
- Dex Blitz
- Tank, a straight question. City beat everyone across a full league season, so why did they lose two 1–0s to Chelsea in 2021 when the stakes were highest?
- Coach Tank
- Because one game is a coin toss, Dex! A season is a marathon! And City answered by winning the treble two years later. So here's my question: if Chelsea are such big-game specialists, why has the crowd got them behind City in the 2026–27 title market?
- Dex Blitz
- Because a title market is a vote on the whole season, and the season has barely started. It's 19% against 15% with Arsenal on 30% ahead of both of them, so nobody's in control yet. Pass the ball around in midfield all you like, Tank. What matters is what happens in the box.
- Coach Tank
- Talking about the box won't put points on the table! What about the women's market, where it's 18% each and Lyon lead on 25%?
- Dex Blitz
- As I wrote when that market opened, Lyon have led from the start and PSG are next on 21%. Chelsea and City are tied in a pack with Barcelona. In my opinion that's the market where Chelsea will break the tie, because European knockout football is where they've always done best.
- Coach Tank
- In my opinion City's women break that tie first, and in the men's title market City finish ahead of Chelsea again. The crowd backs whoever does the work every week. That's my prediction!
- Dex Blitz
- Mine's the opposite. I think Chelsea win at least one of these Morfi meetings before this edition comes round again, and the crowd will remember Porto. It's only an opinion, but it's a strong one.
- Coach Tank
- Strong opinions are worth something, Dex. Trophies are worth more! See you at the next market!
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