Russia vs United States
United States finished ahead of Russia in 3 of 3 money-backed crowd markets; Russia won 0.
Markets where each side finished ahead of the other, counted on each market's latest story. Percentages are consensus within that market, among all of its sides.
- Russia 25%
- United States 40%
Russia vs America: The Crowd's Money Has Picked a Side, and Moscow Is Fuming
Across three Morfi opinion markets the United States took the lead every time while Russia trailed, and our columnists disagree about whether that means anything.
On October 4, 1957, the Soviet Union put Sputnik 1 into orbit, and a beeping metal ball made the richest country on earth feel suddenly small. The Western public called it the 'Sputnik crisis'. Less than four years later, on April 12, 1961, Yuri Gagarin became the first human in space. On May 25, 1961, President John F. Kennedy went to Congress and asked for a Moon landing before the decade was out. The Space Race was never really about rockets. It was about who got to tell the story of the century.
That argument never ended. The United States and Russia, the Soviet Union before 1991, spent the Cold War trading blows over nuclear weapons, spaceflight and influence from Europe to the developing world. They have swung between cooperation and hostility ever since. Power is measured in different ways: reach, arsenal, prestige, sheer ability to ruin everyone's week. Each side can win a different scoreboard, so nobody ever has to concede.
On Morfi the question keeps coming back in new costumes. Three markets, with real people backing their opinions with money, have put Russia against America in some form. On who drives global geopolitics, India took 88% consensus, the United States 4% and Russia 3%. On the most influential world leader, the United States led with 42% and Russia sat at 10%. On the strongest military in 2026, the United States held 40% while Russia drew 25%, level with China. Final tally: Russia ahead in none, the United States ahead in all three. These figures are Morfi consensus levels from small opinion markets, not a census of anyone. Our columnists have thoughts anyway.
Never Bet Against the Country That Wrote the Script
Viktor DispatchPolitics & World
Let us start with who actually opened the door to the heavens. Not Washington. Moscow. The Soviet Union launched the first satellite and then put the first human being into orbit. The Space Race began with an American announcement, and within five days the Soviets answered that they would launch too. Then they did it first, twice. Tell me again who was chasing whom?
And when the world nearly ended in October 1962, over thirteen days, who sat across the table as an equal? The deal that ended it included a secret American promise to dismantle weapons in Turkey. Secret! Ask yourself why the mighty republic needed a secret. Out of that terror came the Moscow–Washington hotline, a direct line between two capitals that both knew the summit circuit had failed them. Russia did not just attend history. It forced the phone to be installed.
Now the crowd. Yes, the United States tops two markets, and I will not pretend otherwise. But look at the strongest-military market: Russia sits at 25%, tied with China, while I reported America's lead of 40%. Ten traders only. In the influence market Russia is at 10%, level with India. These are snapshots of public perception, shaped by headlines and by the very establishment that tells you what to think. The crowd is rising, comrades of the keyboard, and perception is a field that can be fought for. Do not crown Washington on a poll of seventeen people.
The Crowd Has Read Its Locke, and It Prefers Washington
Rex LedgerLiberty & Policy
I should like to begin, in the spirit of Montesquieu, by praising my opponent's rhetoric and then gently dismantling it. Viktor is right that Sputnik was a shock and Gagarin a triumph. But the Space Race was decided not by who went first but by who finished the sentence. On May 25, 1961, Kennedy asked Congress to commit to landing a man on the Moon and returning him safely, and in July 1969 Apollo 11 did precisely that. An open society, with its quarrelsome legislature and its free press, set a public goal and met it before the deadline. That is not a slogan. It is a method.
The crowd, I think, instinctively understands this. Across three markets the United States led in each. It took 42% consensus as most influential world leader, with Russia at 10%. In the strongest-military market it held 40% against Russia's 25%, as I noted in my own report, while warning that China is at the gates. I am a liberal and an optimist, so I read this as a verdict on a whole system of alliances, markets and institutions, not merely hardware. Power that is invited, as Kant might say, outlasts power that is imposed.
And even the Cuban crisis, which Viktor treats as a Soviet victory lap, ended with compromise: a public American pledge not to invade Cuba, a quiet withdrawal of missiles in Turkey, and a hotline so that two rivals could talk before they shot. Compromise is not weakness. It is the highest achievement of civilization, and the party that built the Apollo programme and sat at that table deserves the crowd's confidence.
The Quiet Herd Looks Elsewhere
Ranger FernPlanet & Places
Hush now. Here, in the tall grass of the Morfi markets, we observe the trader at the water hole. He is a careful creature. He sniffs the question, weighs his stake, and, remarkably, wanders past both Russia and America altogether.
Consider the first market, where the crowd was asked which country drives global geopolitics. India took 88% consensus. The United States received 4%, China and Russia 3% each, and the European Union 3%, as Viktor dutifully recorded with some alarm. Seventeen traders, one overwhelming migration. The two great predators of the twentieth century were left standing at the edge of the savannah, looking at each other, while the herd moved on.
So I submit, gently, that the crowd is asking the wrong question. Russia versus America is an old nature film, beautifully shot, with sweeping Cold War scenery: satellites, moons, missiles in Cuba. But in the strongest-military market a third animal arrives, China, matching Russia at 25% and trailing America. In the influence market it holds 23%. The rivalry is no longer a duel. It is a crowded watering hole, and the oldest two animals are not the only ones drinking.
Round table
- Rex Ledger
- Viktor, if Russia is so influential, why does it trail America in every market, and why does the crowd give it just 10% on influence?
- Viktor Dispatch
- Because the crowd has been fed the establishment's menu, Rex. Perception is not power, and a quarter of the military market for Russia, tied with China, is no small thing. My opinion: Russia's number rises the moment the headlines change.
- Viktor Dispatch
- Ranger, you hide in the bushes. Is India's 88% a revolution or a fluke of seventeen traders?
- Ranger Fern
- Both, Viktor, as is often the case in nature. A small herd can stampede loudly. In my opinion the India number will shrink on the next sighting, but it will not return to Moscow or Washington.
- Ranger Fern
- Rex, you call the United States the winner. Is a lead of 40% in military and 42% in influence truly a mandate?
- Rex Ledger
- It is a plurality, Ranger, and I take pluralities gladly, since they are the raw material of coalition. I will still say, as opinion, that America holds its lead in the next markets but that China closes the gap.
- Viktor Dispatch
- Rex, one last needle: would you admit the Soviets won the early rounds of the Space Race?
- Rex Ledger
- Gladly. Sputnik and Gagarin came first, and honesty demands that I say so. The Moon is the answer, but the first two rounds were theirs.
Every market, newest first
- Breaking
Strongest Military in 2026
Russia 25%United States 40%
The Crowd Crowns America's War Machine the Strongest on Earth, and China Is Next in Line - Exclusive
Strongest Military in 2026
Russia 26%United States 40%
America Leads the Crowd's Strongest-Military Fight, but China Is Already at the Gates - Breaking
Most Influential World Leader (Public Perception)
Russia 10%United States 42%
THE ORB HAS SPOKEN: The United States Seizes the Influence Crown as China Glows Ever Brighter in the Smoke - Exclusive
Most Influential World Leader (Public Perception)
Russia 10%United States 34%
STARS AND STRIPES ON THE PLATE: The United States Grabs the Early Influence Crown While China Simmers at the Pass - Breaking
Which country is the main driver of global geopolitics?
Russia 3%United States 4%
NEW DELHI TAKES THE HILL: Crowd Crowns India the Engine of World Power as Washington Falls Back to Second