NEW DELHI TAKES THE HILL: Crowd Crowns India the Engine of World Power as Washington Falls Back to Second

FROM THE FRONT, LESS THAN A DAY IN. The smoke hasn't cleared yet, but the flag is up. In the opinion market asking which country is the main driver of global geopolitics, the crowd has picked its commander: India, dug in at 88% consensus. Field reporters can confirm that nobody saw this coming at dawn.

The terms of engagement were strict. Voters had to name the single most influential actor on the world stage, judged on economic, military, diplomatic and technological influence. That's no popularity contest. It's a full-spectrum assessment, and the troops came to it with their wallets drawn.

Holding the second line is the United States at 4% consensus. It has been pushed off the summit, but it's still well armed and very much in the fight. The rest of the ballot is still out there in the trenches: 3 other sides. None of them has broken through the front line yet.

The order of battle so far: 17 unique traders have deployed, and $482,754 has gone in behind their convictions. This correspondent's opinion, and it's only an opinion: a crowd naming New Delhi over Washington is sending a signal that the map rooms of the world's capitals would do well to take seriously. Or it's just one very loud opening barrage. On a battlefield this young, the two can look alike.

Remember, these are Morfi consensus levels, a measure of the crowd's conviction and not a headcount. The figures come from live opinion markets on Morfi, where real people put money behind what they believe. The line can still move. Readers who think the verdict is wrong can join the market and fire their own shot.