Chelsea FC vs Liverpool FC
Liverpool FC finished ahead of Chelsea FC in 2 of 2 money-backed crowd markets; Chelsea FC won 0.
Markets where each side finished ahead of the other, counted on each market's latest story. Percentages are consensus within that market, among all of its sides.
- Chelsea FC 28%
- Liverpool FC 43%
Ghost Goals and Cold Cash: The Crowd Backs Liverpool Over Chelsea, Twice
Chelsea and Liverpool have fought over cup finals, a contested goal and the right to call themselves England's modern heavyweight, and on Morfi the money keeps leaning towards Anfield, but only just.
Cardiff, 27 February 2005. Liverpool have led the League Cup final 1–0 since the opening minutes, the trophy is practically wearing red ribbons, and then the 79th minute arrives. Chelsea equalise, it goes to extra time, Didier Drogba and Mateja Kežman make it 3–1, and Chelsea hang on to win 3–2. A few months later the two clubs met again in a Champions League semi-final at Anfield, Luis García scored a goal Chelsea swear never crossed the line, and José Mourinho gave English football a phrase it still uses: the 'ghost goal'.
Here is the strange part. For most of their history these two clubs were not really rivals. A London club and a Merseyside club, separated by geography and by habit. Then Roman Abramovich bought Chelsea in 2003, the money arrived, and the two kept getting drawn together in finals and European ties. Twenty-odd years on, supporters still argue about the head-to-head record, about who got robbed and when, and about which of them has the better claim to be England's leading club right now.
That argument has moved to the opinion markets on Morfi, where people back their view with real money. The two sides have met in 2 markets so far, and Liverpool finished ahead of Chelsea in both. Ahead, though, is a generous word. In the 2026–27 title market Liverpool sat at 16% consensus and Chelsea at 15%, and in the head-to-head the crowd's conviction gave Liverpool 43%, with a Chelsea win on 28%. Our two columnists are not going to agree about what that means.
Never Count Out the Blues
Dex BlitzSports & Esports
Fans, settle in, because I've watched this movie before. Liverpool are 1–0 up in Cardiff, the clock's ticking past the 79th minute, the red end is warming up its vocal cords, and boom: Chelsea equalise, Drogba and Kežman strike in extra time, and it finishes 3–2 to the Blues. That's Chelsea's whole story in one match. You write them off, they get stronger. If you want the full scrapbook, the history of this rivalry is packed with them.
Go back further and it's the same pattern. Last day of the 2002–03 season, Liverpool turn up at Stamford Bridge with a Champions League place up for grabs. Chelsea win 2–1, take the spot and send Liverpool off to the UEFA Cup. That match is the starting gun for the whole modern rivalry. Then there's the 2012 FA Cup final, Chelsea 2–1 again, and if you fancy some ancient history to wind up the Kop, the biggest win in the whole fixture is Chelsea's 6–1 in August 1937.
Now the crowd. Coach Tank is going to stomp in here waving the 43% like a trophy. Fine. Look at the title market: Liverpool 16%, Chelsea 15%. One point between them, folks. That's not a gap, it's a coin toss. And in the head-to-head, the draw at 29% and a Chelsea win at 28% are basically level too. When I opened the title race in my piece on Arsenal sprinting out of the traps, the crowd had its eyes on Arsenal and Manchester City. Nobody's watching Chelsea. And that's exactly how Chelsea like it.
Plus, a word on Anfield in 2005. Mourinho called it a ghost goal and the replays have kept that row going ever since. Liverpool's best night of the era went through a goal that half of England still disputes. I'm not saying that settles it. I'm saying Chelsea fans have a long memory and a big grudge, and those two things win matches.
Scoreboard. Read It. Then Drop and Give Me Twenty
Coach TankSport & Fitness
LISTEN UP, DEX! You want comebacks? Liverpool beat AC Milan in a Champions League final FROM 3–0 DOWN! That's the comeback you're talking about! And how did Liverpool get to that final? By beating Chelsea at Anfield! Ghost goal, real goal, whatever you want to call it. THE MEDAL IS REAL.
Now the numbers, because numbers don't skip leg day. 84 Liverpool wins. 67 for Chelsea. 51 draws. That's not a rivalry, that's a training programme, and Liverpool are the ones setting the reps! The 2019 Super Cup? Liverpool, 5–4 on penalties. Both 2022 finals, the EFL Cup and the FA Cup? Goalless, then penalties, Liverpool both times. 2024 EFL Cup final? 1–0 after extra time, Liverpool again. When it gets to the last rep and everybody's legs are gone, Liverpool keep lifting.
And the crowd knows it! In my piece on the head-to-head market Liverpool PULLED AWAY on 43% consensus. The draw on 29%. Chelsea on 28%, finishing BEHIND THE DRAW. Dex, your team lost a sprint to a stalemate! In the title market Liverpool also edged Chelsea, 16% to 15%. Small margin? Sure. Two markets, two wins. You don't apologise for winning by one, you go back to the gym and make it two.
Tough love for the Blues, though, because I'm a coach and not a monster. Chelsea built this rivalry with a chequebook: £140,000,000 for the club and £103,000,000 on players in a single summer. Liverpool's edge was built on the training ground. Money buys you equipment. It doesn't do the push-ups for you. Get back to work, Chelsea, and then we'll talk.
Round table
- Dex Blitz
- Tank, three of those cup wins you're bragging about came through penalties after goalless draws. Isn't that a coin flip with a better soundtrack?
- Coach Tank
- Penalties are PRESSURE, Dex! Pressure is a muscle, and Liverpool train it. Your turn: why did your club finish behind the DRAW in the head-to-head market?
- Dex Blitz
- Because the crowd's playing it safe. 29% for a draw and 28% for a Chelsea win is a photo finish, and Tank called it one in his own headline. Even the doubters can't split them.
- Coach Tank
- Fine. And all your Abramovich-era nostalgia, wasn't that whole era just the chequebook talking?
- Dex Blitz
- The money buys players. It doesn't take a 79th-minute equaliser in a final for you. That came from the dressing room.
- Coach Tank
- Bigger question for both of us: in my title piece Arsenal led on 30%, with Manchester United on 20% and City on 19%. Did the crowd forget us both?
- Dex Blitz
- On 26 traders, yes it did, and that's the opportunity. My prediction, and it's only my opinion: Chelsea overtake Liverpool in the next title market, and the head-to-head gap closes to a whisker.
- Coach Tank
- My opinion, at full volume: Liverpool make it three for three in these markets, and next time the crowd's conviction behind them grows, because the head-to-head record keeps doing the talking.
Every market, newest first
- Breaking
Liverpool vs Chelsea: Who wins?
Chelsea FC 28%Liverpool FC 43%
LIVERPOOL PULLS AWAY! Draw and Chelsea Locked in a Photo Finish for Second - Breaking
Who will win the Premier League 2026–27
Chelsea FC 15%Liverpool FC 16%
ARSENAL SMASHES THE LEADERBOARD! United Hunting Them in the 2026–27 Title Fight - Exclusive
Who will win the Premier League 2026–27
Chelsea FC 15%Liverpool FC 15%
ARSENAL SPRINTS OUT OF THE TRAPS! Man City Chasing in a Brand-New Title Race