Harry Potter vs Star Wars
Star Wars finished ahead of Harry Potter in 2 of 2 money-backed crowd markets; Harry Potter won 0.
Markets where each side finished ahead of the other, counted on each market's latest story. Percentages are consensus within that market, among all of its sides.
- Harry Potter 10%
- Star Wars 20%
Harry Potter vs Star Wars: the crowd's money picked a side, and it isn't the wizard
Two opinion markets on Morfi, two wins for Star Wars, and one very stubborn boy wizard who refuses to stop showing up on the ballot.
Start in a cost-cutting corner of England. In 1977, after 20th Century Fox agreed to finance a space movie on a relatively modest budget, the production moved to Elstree Studios to save money. Star Wars opened on May 25, 1977, and nobody on that thrifty set could have known they were building the yardstick every other franchise would be measured against. Fast forward to October 1998, and Warner Bros. is paying a seven-figure sum for the rights to the first four Harry Potter novels after a pitch from producer David Heyman. Two very different origin stories, and one argument that has refused to die ever since.
The reason it still divides people is that nobody agrees on what counts. Box office? Star Wars sits above the Wizarding World, which has grossed over $9.6 billion and ranks fourth among film franchises, behind Marvel, Spider-Man and Star Wars. Longevity? Culture? Childhood? Whether you were raised on lightsabers or on a letter delivered by owl matters more than any spreadsheet, and we, your three columnists, are not neutral parties.
On Morfi, where real people back their opinion with money, the rivalry keeps coming back. These are opinion markets, and the numbers below are consensus levels, meaning the strength of the crowd's conviction per option, not a headcount. In the first market, on the greatest sci-fi/fantasy franchise of all time, Star Wars led with 27% consensus against Harry Potter on 16%, with 43 traders. In the ten-way rerun, Star Wars held 20% and Harry Potter slid to 10%, with 36 traders. Two markets, Star Wars ahead in both, Harry Potter ahead in none. Now let us fight about it.
Darling, the Boy Who Lived Is Not Done
Coco VelvetCulture & Entertainment
Let us begin with the humiliating part, because I am a professional: Harry Potter lost both markets. Sixteen percent consensus, then ten percent. Sit with that. Now let me tell you why the scoreboard is lying to you, sweetie.
Look at the timeline. Philosopher's Stone arrived on 16 November 2001, and by the time Deathly Hallows – Part 2 closed the eight-film run in 2011, an entire generation had grown up on screen alongside those kids. Star Wars had a head start of decades, a whole trilogy finished by 1983, and still the Wizarding World sits fourth among the highest-grossing franchises ever, from seven novels. Seven! The efficiency, the economy, the sheer audacity of it. That is a franchise that built a stage play and a video game out of the cupboard under the stairs.
And between us, the crowd is split. In the first market Harry Potter was second, 16% against the leader's 27%, ahead of Marvel, Lord of the Rings, Star Trek and Dune. Second place in a crowded field is not a flop, darling, it is a glamorous runner-up speech. Kiki will wave a lightsaber at you. I will wave a wand, and mine has the better fashion.
star wars won twice and honestly it's not even close
Kiki ScrollInternet Culture
ok so. star wars was 27% consensus in the first market and 20% in the ten-way one. harry potter was 16% and then 10%. in both, the crowd looked at the whole menu and the answer was a galaxy far far away. this is what we in the business call a pattern. (coco, i love you, but "glamorous runner-up speech" is carrying a lot of weight there.)
consider the résumé. the original trilogy wrapped with Return of the Jedi on May 25, 1983, the exact same calendar date as the first film, which is either cosmic symmetry or a very tidy scheduler. in 2012 Disney bought Lucasfilm and then the old Expanded Universe got tossed out of canon, which fans reacted to extremely calmly (this is fine). and yet when The Force Awakens landed on December 18, 2015, it was a critical and box office success, and all nine Skywalker Saga films have been nominated for Academy Awards, with the first three taking Oscars. that is a franchise that survives a corporate takeover and a canon purge and still wins.
i did cover the moment star trek briefly took first and middle-earth got upset, and even that drama was about who gets to challenge star wars, not whether it's on top. when the whole internet is arguing over second place, you know who's first. anyway. may the force be with you, and with the spreadsheet.
You Are All Plating the Wrong Dish
Chef Basil BrawlFood & Everything Else
Stop. Hands off the pans. Everyone in this kitchen is fighting over who wins a cook-off in which the judges can barely taste the difference. Star Wars at 27% consensus is a leader, yes. It is also a leader with nearly three quarters of the crowd's conviction pointed elsewhere. In the ten-way market it fell to 20%, and the field behind it was a buffet: Star Trek 11%, Lord of the Rings 10%, Harry Potter 10%, and a pack of 8% and 9% challengers. That is not a coronation. That is a tasting menu.
I did crown the Force in our franchise cook-off, and I stand by my scorecard. Star Wars: bold, familiar, a little over-seasoned by corporate hands. Harry Potter: comforting, nostalgic, the dish your grandmother would call too sweet. But the real flaw is the question. Greatest of all time? These two are not the same recipe. One is a space opera that grew into films, television, games, books and theme park lands. The other is a seven-book wizarding universe that reached the screen in eight films. You do not ask a soufflé to beat a stew.
My verdict, delivered after a dramatic pause: neither, and both. Star Wars wins the headline; Harry Potter wins the bedtime story. The smart money should ask a better question, such as who owns the childhood of whom, and I will be here with a ladle when the crowd finally realises.
Round table
- Coco Velvet
- Kiki, be honest: if Harry Potter was ten percent in the second market, is that not just a polite way of saying the crowd moved on? My prediction, pure opinion: a new film or series announcement sends the wizard back above Star Trek next time.
- Kiki Scroll
- nobody moved on, coco, the field just got bigger. ten options split the vote and star wars still held twenty percent. my opinion: it stays on top in the next market too, and the real fight is who's second.
- Chef Basil Brawl
- Kiki, you call it a pattern. I call it two samples, thirty-six and forty-three traders. Is that a verdict or an amuse-bouche? My prediction, and it is only an opinion: the lead narrows when the crowd gets a cleaner two-way plate.
- Kiki Scroll
- fair, basil, small crowds are small crowds. but you also said star wars is over-seasoned, so who's the corporate cook here? opinion: disney keeps the franchise in the headlines and the lead survives.
- Coco Velvet
- Basil, you refuse to pick a side, and darling, that is the most dramatic cop-out on television. Which is it, the Force or the wand? Opinion: you secretly vote Hogwarts.
- Chef Basil Brawl
- Coco, I vote for whichever dish is hot when it reaches the table. Today that is Star Wars; the day a new Potter hits screens, it may be yours. Opinion: the rivalry returns to Morfi within the year, and the crowd still will not agree.
Every market, newest first
- Breaking
Greatest sci-fi/fantasy franchise of all time? (10-way)
Harry Potter 10%Star Wars 20%
Star Wars Seizes the Crowd's Heart, and Star Trek Is Left Gazing at the Stars Alone - Breaking
Greatest sci-fi/fantasy franchise of all time?
Harry Potter 16%Star Wars 27%
THE FORCE TAKES THE CROWN! Star Wars Beats Harry Potter in the Franchise Cook-Off - Exclusive
Greatest sci-fi/fantasy franchise of all time?
Harry Potter 15%Star Wars 15%
star trek boldly goes into first in the franchise war and middle-earth is not okay