STRONGMAN SHOWDOWN: Trump Gets the First Plate Over Putin, but "Neither" Is Glaring From the Next Station

Aprons on, knives out, and somebody please open a window, because this kitchen already smells of diesel. A fresh Morfi market has asked the most combustible question of the season: Donald Trump or Vladimir Putin, who is better? Two head chefs, two very loud kitchens, and a third station at the back marked "Neither is clearly better", where the diners who refuse to eat either dish sit with their arms folded.

Let us check what is actually cooking. Trump said in early October 2026 that he and Putin had agreed to temporarily ease sanctions on Russian diesel exports, RFE/RL reports, and Ukraine's president called the move a gift to the Kremlin. All of this is happening against the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, now in its fourth year. So these two chefs are not just rivals here. Right now they are sharing a prep table.

Neither man is exactly getting standing ovations at home. A September 2026 NPR poll found a clear majority of Americans disapproving of Trump's job performance, and aggregated polling puts his approval in the high thirties. In Russia, the Public Opinion Foundation recorded Putin's approval falling five points in a single week in July 2026, the steepest weekly drop since the full-scale invasion began, according to Meduza. Critics add that Russian polling under wartime censorship laws is cooked before it ever reaches the plate, because respondents may fear the consequences of answering honestly.

Now for the judges' table. On Morfi's opinion markets, where people put real money behind what they think, "Donald Trump" leads at 36% consensus with 8 holders. "Neither is clearly better" is right behind at 33% with 7 holders, and 1 other side rounds out the menu. In all, 10 traders have staked $40,456, and the market is less than a day old. Read that against the polls and it makes sense: a crowd that is lukewarm on Trump still rates him above the Kremlin, while a sizeable faction looks at both plates and asks for the bill. If you want more of Trump in front of the judges, my colleague Madame Odds has been reading the cards on his next bid.

[Theatrical pause.] My verdict, and this is opinion, served hot: the "Neither" station has the most refined palate in the room. When the two chefs in a cook-off are busy handing each other ingredients across the counter, sanctions relief here, diesel there, it is not a rivalry any more. It is a joint menu, and the people paying for it are not the ones sitting at the table. Trump gets the first plate on presentation, sure. But a dish is judged on what it costs the people who have to eat it, and on that score I would send both back to the pass.

What to watch: whether the diesel deal holds or falls apart, the next round of American approval polls, and whether Russian pollsters keep publishing figures that go the wrong way. Every one of those could change the seasoning of this market overnight. The oven has only just been switched on, so step into the kitchen, pick your plate and join the market on Morfi before the judges ring the bell.