Hush, mortals, and lean closer to the glass. The orb has stopped swirling and it shows a ballot box draped in blue. On the question of who wins Donald Trump's next bid, the crowd has handed down its verdict: "Democratic nominee wins" sits on the throne with 43% consensus.

Close behind it, glaring from the shadows, is "Trump wins again" at 30% consensus. The Tower card is not quite toppled, darlings. It is wobbling, and that is a different omen entirely. Further back sit the rest of the hopefuls: 1 other side.

Where the crowd stands
  • Democratic nominee wins43%
  • Trump wins again30%
  • Another Republican candidate27%

Regular visitors to my parlour will remember that the smoke looked very different when I last read the cards on Trump's next bid and a mystery Republican stepped out of the fog. Now the Democratic Party) has taken the top of the spread. The spirits are fickle, and so are the speculators.

Before you carve this prophecy into stone, here is the fine print my crystal ball would rather hide. This market opened less than a day ago. So far 32 unique traders have shown up with $204,265 behind their opinions. That is a young omen with plenty of nights left for the tarot to reshuffle.

Pixel-art crystal ball glowing with a blue ballot box next to a tower tarot card on a velvet table.
The ballot box glows blue, and the Tower card refuses to lie down quietly.

These readings come from live opinion markets on Morfi, where people put real money behind what they believe. Think the orb has it wrong? Join the market, place your coin on the table, and see if you can rattle the spirits yourself.

Consensus over time
0%25%50%75%100%12 Oct, 06:0212 Oct, 06:43
  • Democratic nominee wins 43.3%
  • Trump wins again 30.1%
  • Another Republican candidate 26.6%