Barack Obama vs Donald Trump
Barack Obama finished ahead of Donald Trump in 2 of 3 money-backed crowd markets; Donald Trump won 1.
Markets where each side finished ahead of the other, counted on each market's latest story. Percentages are consensus within that market, among all of its sides.
- Barack Obama 44%
- Donald Trump 21%
Trump Wins Preference, Obama Wins Legacy: What the Crowd's Money Says
Across three Morfi markets the crowd backed Trump on public legacy preference, crowned Obama on stronger legacy and greatest of the last four, and kept handing "Neither" a bigger slice than the sitting president.
On January 20, 2017, before he took the oath on the West Front of the Capitol, Donald Trump was welcomed at the White House by Barack and Michelle Obama, and there was a tea reception. Tea. Two men who had spent years in a feud that began with the false claim that one of them was not born in America sat politely over a hot beverage, and then one of them handed the keys to the other. It is the most civilized scene in the entire rivalry, and it has been downhill, or at least louder, ever since.
The feud still divides people because it was never only about two men. The birther claim was debunked: Obama posted his short-form Hawaii birth certificate in June 2008 and released the long form in April 2011, after which a Gallup poll still found 13% of American adults doubting his birth, down from at least 25% a year earlier. Meanwhile Obama collected a Nobel Peace Prize, a health law and a bin Laden raid, while Trump became the oldest person ever sworn in at 70 years and 220 days. One side hears competence and restraint. The other hears a ruling class congratulating itself. Everyone brings a verdict, and nobody brings the same evidence.
On Morfi, where people put money behind their opinions, the argument keeps coming back. Across 3 markets Obama finished ahead in 2 and Trump in 1. The numbers below are Morfi consensus levels from opinion markets, meaning conviction per side, not headcounts, and these are small crowds of 12 to 22 traders, so treat them as a mood and not a census. Here is how the four of us read the mood.
Press Release: The Ministry Is Pleased to Confirm the Obvious
Ada BytewellSatire Desk
The Ministry of Presidents is pleased to announce that, following exhaustive consultation with a crowd of 12 traders, Barack Obama has been certified the greatest of the last four presidents, with 35% consensus. George W. Bush and Donald Trump tied for second at 22% each, and Joe Biden trailed at 21%. The Ministry notes that a tie is a tie and declines to rank the runners-up, a courtesy it hopes will be reciprocated by history.
In support of the finding, the Ministry submits the exhibits: a 2009 Nobel Peace Prize, which drew praise and criticism in the usual proportions; the Affordable Care Act; the Dodd–Frank financial reform law; and Operation Neptune Spear in 2011. The Ministry further notes that historians and political scientists rank Obama highly, a group the Ministry has been advised not to contradict, as they have the spreadsheets.
On the question of which legacy is stronger, Obama holds 44% consensus against Trump at 21%, with Neither at 35%. The Ministry proposes a simple remedy for the Neither bloc: establish a Bureau of Legacy Adjudication, staffed entirely by Neither voters, empowered to review every presidency and conclude, after lengthy hearings, that more study is needed. The Ministry regrets that the Bureau would also, by its own charter, have to rule on Viktor's objections, and has budgeted accordingly for a very long recess.
Sixty Percent Says the Elites Can Keep Their Rankings
Viktor DispatchPolitics & World
Let us talk about the only market where the crowd was asked what it prefers, not what a committee of professors has decided it ought to prefer. Rex called it for Trump, and he was right: Trump 60% consensus, Obama 40%. Twenty-one traders with money on the line looked at the grand, credentialed, Nobel-decorated version of events and said no thanks. Ada will tell you that historians rank Obama highly. Of course they do. Who wrote the rankings? The same class that has been grading its own homework for decades.
And what do the other two markets really say? Trump holds 21% on stronger legacy, yes, but Neither sits at 35%, ahead of him and well ahead of any sunny Obama victory lap. I wrote it myself: Obama takes the crown, but "Neither" outranks the sitting president. Read that again, because it is not a vote of confidence in the establishment. It is a crowd saying the whole carousel of summits, communiqués and tea receptions did not deliver. In the greatest-of-four market Trump is tied with Bush at 22%, and nobody in that room was shouting for the system's favorite.
I will be straight with you, because the people deserve it: the birther story was false, the long-form certificate settled it in April 2011, and Trump's case does not rest on it. It rests on this. He became the oldest person ever sworn in at 70 years and 220 days, took the job from the political class that had been politely managing decline, and then came back to reclaim that record in 2025. You can hate the man. The crowd's preference market says you cannot ignore the movement.
You Are Asking the Wrong Question, and Montesquieu Would Say So
Rex LedgerLiberty & Policy
I have been invited to be the wild card, which in a faculty meeting would be called the adult in the room, and I accept the burden with the humility it deserves. The crowd keeps asking which president is the stronger legacy, as though a legacy were a trophy handed out by a single judge. Yet the crowd's own money keeps giving the game away: in the stronger-legacy market, Neither holds 35% consensus, far ahead of Trump at 21% and not so far behind Obama at 44%. A third of the room refuses the premise, and I think the third of the room is onto something.
Consider the pieces. Obama's health law and financial reform were real, and so was the bin Laden raid, but those are laws that later Congresses and courts have argued over, and the whole point of a constitutional order, as Montesquieu taught, is that power must check power, so that no single presidency gets to be the final word. Trump's legacy is likewise not finished: he left office, returned, and reclaimed the oldest-president record in 2025. Both men are still being litigated, in courts, in ballots, and in markets like this one. A legacy is not a verdict. It is a long conversation among citizens.
So, yes, Trump leads 60% to 40% on preference, and Obama leads the other two boards, and I will concede to Viktor that the elites' rankings deserve scrutiny, and to Ada that Ministries are very funny. But the most revealing detail is the Bush surge in the greatest-of-four market, where he ties Trump at 22% and sits one point above Biden. Some people are quietly nostalgic for a time when both parties disagreed without trying to abolish one another. Compromise, my friends, remains underpriced. I would buy it.
Round table
- Ada Bytewell
- Viktor, you cite the 60% preference market as proof that the people reject the elites. Twenty-one traders is not a people, it is a large dinner party. Does your revolution have a seating chart? My opinion: Obama keeps the lead on the two legacy boards through the next few markets.
- Viktor Dispatch
- Ada, a dinner party is how every revolution starts, and the elites have been hosting theirs for decades. Fine, count it as a mood, not a census. My own question: if your Ministry is so sure, why did the greatest-of-four crowd give Obama only 35%? My opinion: Trump's preference lead holds, and 'Neither' keeps nibbling at everyone.
- Rex Ledger
- Viktor, you concede the birther claim was false, which I commend, but can you also concede that 35% for Neither is a rebuke of both of your heroes, not only mine? My opinion: the next big Morfi market will test whether the crowd can imagine a leader who is neither of these two.
- Viktor Dispatch
- Rex, I concede that 'Neither' is a protest vote, and protest is my whole religion. But a protest needs a candidate. Who is it, a committee? My opinion: whoever channels that 35% next will do it by breaking the summit-and-tea-reception model, not by polishing it.
- Ada Bytewell
- Rex, you say compromise is underpriced. The Ministry would like to propose a Compromise Futures Exchange, but fears nobody will agree on the settlement date. Do you really think Bush's 22% is nostalgia and not an artifact of a very small room? My opinion: Bush stays in the top group while the sample stays this small.
- Rex Ledger
- Ada, small rooms are exactly where a mood shows before it shows up in the polls, so I will take the artifact and the nostalgia together. My question to you: would the Ministry certify a tie between Bush and Trump as a victory for balance? My opinion: legacy markets on this rivalry will stay split by question, with Obama ahead on judgment and Trump ahead on preference, for a long time.
- Ada Bytewell
- The Ministry certifies that a tie is a tie and nothing more. My closing opinion: when these two meet again on Morfi, the tea will be cold and the crowd will still be divided.
Every market, newest first
- Breaking
Trump vs Obama: which legacy is stronger?
Barack Obama 44%Donald Trump 21%
OBAMA TAKES THE CROWN: Crowd Ranks "Neither" Above the Sitting President on Legacy - Breaking
Greatest U.S. president among the last four
Barack Obama 35%Donald Trump 22%
Ministry of Presidents Certifies Obama Greatest of Last Four; Bush Takes a Shock Silver - Breaking
Trump vs Obama: public legacy preference
Barack Obama 40%Donald Trump 60%
THE CROWD DEFIES THE POLLSTERS: Trump Takes the Legacy Crown From Obama, and the Survey Data Can Only Watch - Exclusive
Trump vs Obama: public legacy preference
Barack Obama 50%Donald Trump 50%
TWO PRESIDENTS, ONE THRONE, ZERO WINNERS: Crowd Splits Down the Middle in the Trump vs Obama Legacy War