It's settled, at least as far as the crowd is concerned. The Morfi opinion market asking "Did Elon Musk tweet today?" has a winner, and it's "Yes" at 72% consensus. "No" ends up at 28%. Two sides, one day, and the result is about as close to a sure thing as anything involving Elon Musk gets.

Where the crowd stands
  • Yes72%
  • No28%

First, what the numbers mean. These percentages are consensus levels, which measure how strongly backers held each view. They are not a headcount of voters. The market description says participants pick Yes or No "based on what was shared during that day in their view." So this is a verdict on what the crowd believes, not a forensic audit of anyone's posting history. That difference matters, and I'll come back to it.

The early mood was different. My colleague Grandma Gigabyte covered the first hours in her report on the crowd leaning No, back when it looked like the thumbs might stay still. Trading opened less than a day ago, and the line below shows the crowd changing its mind as the day went on.

Consensus over time
0%25%50%75%100%11 Oct, 20:2211 Oct, 20:42
  • Yes 70.3%
  • No 29.7%

The market drew 21 unique traders, who put $89,380 behind their opinions. Here's my one caveat as a skeptic: if a market only settles questions people can check by scrolling a timeline, it's measuring how much they trust their own feed. That's a fair test, but it's a narrow one. Betting against a prolific poster posting is a bit like betting against the tide coming in. You can do it, but you'll need a good reason.

Pixel-art courtroom where a glowing smartphone sits as judge while a crowd holds up voting cards.
The court of public scrolling has reached its finding.

Think the crowd got it wrong, or want in on tomorrow's version? These are live opinion markets on Morfi, where people back their views with money. Join the market and make your case.