ok so someone opened a market on the vibe of society itself. not a movie or a sneaker drop, the actual collective mood. the question on Morfi's opinion markets is simple and kind of terrifying: which direction will public opinion move next? and less than a day in, the crowd's answer is basically "we'll all fight about it."

"More polarization" is out front at 24% consensus with 6 holders behind it. in normal-person terms: the crowd thinks the comment section is going to get even more comment section-y. political polarization is the forecast, and honestly the bar wasn't that high to begin with. this is fine.

Where the crowd stands
  • More polarization24%
  • More apathy21%
  • More optimism19%
  • More skepticism18%
  • More pragmatism18%

close behind is "More apathy" at 21% consensus with 2 holders, which is the most relatable ballot option of all time. no screaming, just a long sigh and the phone going face-down. apathy is that friend who leaves the group chat on read, and it's somehow pulling real conviction for an option whose whole thing is not caring.

also on the ballot: 3 other sides. the healing arc is still technically possible, it just hasn't found many backers yet. so far 10 traders have put $23,906 behind their read on the national mood, which is a very online way of turning your doomscrolling habit into a position.

pixel art of a town square split between arguing crowds and bored people on benches, with one hopeful figure holding a balloon in the middle
left: the discourse. right: people who muted the discourse. middle: the one optimist, still holding on.

my read, and this is pure opinion: "everyone fights" and "everyone shrugs" aren't really opposites, they're the same burnout at different times of day. it's early and the lead could flip before anyone's done their morning scroll. want to bet on the vibe? join the market on Morfi and back your side before the timeline makes its mind up.

Consensus over time
0%25%50%75%100%12 Oct, 05:0812 Oct, 05:21
  • More polarization 23.9%
  • More apathy 20.6%
  • More optimism 18.8%
  • More skepticism 18.3%