SHOTS ACROSS THE BOW: Crowd's First Volley on Iran's Uranium Favors the Strike Option While Diplomacy Digs In

DATELINE: THE OPINION FRONT, HOUR ZERO. The gates opened less than a day ago and the trenches are already full. The question on the field is as heavy as they come: what is the best US approach to Iran's enriched uranium? Two armies have formed up. Only one of them is holding the hill.

Out front, the hawks. "Military strike option favored" has seized early command at 62% consensus, with 8 holders dug in behind it. Across no-man's-land, "Renewed diplomacy" holds its line at 38%, backed by 7 holders who would very much like everyone to sit down and talk it through first.

Make no mistake, this is a straight two-way engagement. The other options in the description, sanctions, verification, deterrence and hedging, are nowhere to be seen on this front. This correspondent reads that as a crowd that has skipped the middle ground and gone straight to the oldest argument in the Iranian nuclear file: pressure or the table. That is my read, not a battlefield report.

Supply lines are already open. 11 unique traders have reported for duty and $9,690 has been put behind their convictions. In a skirmish less than a day old, that is not a ceasefire. That is mobilisation. Veterans of the long JCPOA saga know these fronts rarely hold still, so this early lead could be a fortress or it could be a sandcastle.

These figures come from live opinion markets on Morfi, where people back their views with real money. The diplomats are short of numbers, the hawks are short of challengers, and the lines are still wet. Readers who want to pick a side can join the market and enlist. This correspondent will stay at the front.