FRONT LINE, MORFI MARKETS — The smoke has cleared and the result is in. On the question of how Washington should handle Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium, the crowd has made its choice: "Military strike option favored" holds the ground at 61% consensus. Command has been told. The maps have been redrawn.

This was a straight two-way engagement, with no flanking forces and no third party coming over the ridge. Facing the strike camp was "Renewed diplomacy", which dug in at 39% consensus. That is a respectable defensive line, but on this battlefield respectable means second place.

Where the crowd stands
  • Military strike option favored61%
  • Renewed diplomacy39%

Readers who followed my first dispatch from this front will recognise the terrain. The strike option got its nose in front early and it has not given that ground back. The diplomats, presumably working from memories of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, mounted a determined resistance and failed to break through.

The forces involved: 16 unique traders committed to this theatre, with $32,889 put behind their convictions. These are not opinions shouted from the barracks. They are positions backed with real money. And a word of caution from this correspondent: trading opened less than a day ago, so this is a field verdict, not a peace treaty. Fronts like this one have a habit of moving.

Pixel-art war room table with jet figurines advancing across a map while a dove and treaty papers sit at the edge.
In the war room tonight, the jets have the map and the dove has the corner seat.

In this correspondent's opinion, the debate over the nuclear program of Iran is far from finished, and the diplomats will be back. If you have a view on how it ends, the lines are open: these numbers come from live opinion markets on Morfi, and any reader can join the market and add weight to either side. Report for duty.

Consensus over time
0%25%50%75%100%12 Oct, 02:4912 Oct, 03:16
  • Military strike option favored 61.1%
  • Renewed diplomacy 38.9%