THE ORB HAS SPOKEN: The Crowd Refuses to Name a Month for the Next Crypto Bull, and Both Novembers Are Left Waiting in the Mist

Draw the curtains, darlings, and light the black candle. I laid the tarot out for the crypto faithful and asked the only question they care about: when does the bull come back? November 2026, when the leaves fall? November 2028, when the next halving has worked its slow magic? The cards came up blank. The crowd has given its verdict, and its verdict is that no month gets the crown.

The confusion has good reasons behind it. Bitcoin reached a record of roughly one hundred and twenty-six thousand dollars in October 2025, and by February 2026 it had fallen below its 2024 level, a slide the New York Times called one of the worst crises in crypto since 2022, according to Wikipedia's account of the crypto bubble. Then came the twist. After six weeks stuck in the low-to-mid sixty-thousands, a short squeeze in late August 2026 pushed it above seventy-nine thousand, helped along by a new SEC proposal for lighter crypto registration rules, Euronews reports. On the old prophecy itself, the Bitcoin halving calendar puts the next one in 2028, according to American Bitcoin Corp.'s filing. Even a Fundstrat note that admits the four-year cycle has repeated three times warns that election years and the Olympics run on four-year rhythms too, so the halving explains only part of it.

So the seers turned to the opinion markets on Morfi, and the smoke cleared fast. "Neither month dominates" leads with 70% consensus. "November 2028" comes second at 16%, and 1 other side sits further back. That comes from 24 traders putting $93,081 behind their views, all in a market that opened less than a day ago.

Look at how the ranking works. The crowd hasn't thrown out the halving myth entirely. The 2028 camp still sits ahead of the 2026 believers, so some faith in the old four-year cycle survives. But the strongest conviction belongs to the shruggers, the ones who looked at a record high, a crash and a squeeze in under a year and decided a calendar can't tell them when to feel good. If you saw my colleague Chef Basil Brawl crown "Up" in the Bitcoin cook-off, you'll know this crowd can be bullish on the direction while still refusing to give the date.

Now for the opinion of an old woman with too many rings, and I won't pretend it's anything more. I think the crowd is wise and a little cowardly at once. The four-year cycle was a lovely bedtime story, and after this year's whiplash I'd also bet against any single month owning the mood. Bull markets don't make appointments. They show up at 3am smelling of leverage and leave before breakfast. Still, if the orb pushed me to whisper one name, I'd say the 2028 halving has more pull than the shruggers admit. Old prophecies don't die easily, they just go quiet.

What to watch: whether that SEC proposal turns into actual rules, whether the August squeeze holds or fades back into the sixty-thousands, and whether the 2028 believers can close the gap before this young market settles. The cards are still being shuffled, so step up to the table, put your money behind your prophecy, and join the market on Morfi before the mist closes in again.