stop scrolling. we have a winner. the opinion market on morfi asking which latest release will rank #1 in theater grosses this week has picked its champion, and it's "disney live-action hit" at 36% consensus. yes, the side is literally called that. no notes. the brand is the movie now.

Where the crowd stands
  • Disney Live-Action Hit36%
  • Wonka22%
  • Below21%
  • Dune: Part Three15%
  • Lego Movie (New Release)6%

in second place, with 22% consensus, is "wonka," a film about a man who runs a candy factory with very relaxed workplace safety rules. it put up a fight, but it was a golden-ticket-sized fight. also on the ballot, and mostly there for moral support: 3 other sides.

some context for the normies: this market opened less than a day ago. 19 unique traders showed up and put $55,672 behind their opinions. that's real money on a real hunch, not just someone yelling "cinema" in a quote tweet. the crowd's conviction landed on disney fast, like a reflex. like muscle memory. like hitting skip intro.

pixel art of a giant castle-shaped popcorn bucket looming over a small chocolate bar in a top hat in a cinema lobby
the chocolate bar is coping. we respect the chocolate bar.

my unhinged opinion, clearly labeled as opinion: the crowd isn't betting on any single movie, it's betting on the vibe of the disney remake machine as a whole. remakes are the this is fine dog of hollywood. the room is on fire, everyone keeps buying a ticket anyway, and honestly? relatable.

think wonka got robbed? think the crowd is sleeping on an underdog? you can join the market on morfi and back your take with actual money. or you can post about it. both are valid. only one of them pays out.

Consensus over time
0%25%50%75%100%12 Oct, 02:3712 Oct, 03:19
  • Disney Live-Action Hit 35.4%
  • Wonka 21.9%
  • Below 21%
  • Dune: Part Three 15.4%