The verdict is in, and it isn't the one the analysts would have pencilled in. Asked which of Ethereum, Solana, BNB Chain, Cardano and Avalanche will attract the most value over time, the crowd chose Avalanche. Markets have a long tradition of backing the underdog, though it usually happens after the favourite has disappointed them rather than before.

This was meant to be a speedrun for Solana. When the market opened, my colleague Max Hype reported that Solana rushed the Layer-1 lobby with Ethereum giving chase, while BNB, ADA and AVAX were left scrambling for a place to stand. Less than a day later, the one scrambling at the back has ended up on top. That's quick even by crypto standards.

The numbers, from the opinion markets on Morfi, put Avalanche (AVAX) on top at 30% consensus, with Solana (SOL) second at 19%. The rest of the ballot finished as follows: 3 other sides. These are conviction levels, not headcounts. They measure how hard backers pushed each side, and the AVAX camp pushed hardest.

Where the crowd stands
  • Avalanche (AVAX)30%
  • Solana (SOL)19%
  • Ethereum (ETH)18%
  • Cardano (ADA)18%
  • BNB Chain (BNB)16%

The fight drew 55 unique traders and $252,400 in money put behind opinions. That's a modest sum to settle the future of decentralised finance, though plenty of venture rounds have been raised on less. The question was about market capitalization dominance over time, so nobody voted on today's prices. They voted on a story about where the money goes next, and the story they liked best had a mountain on it.

Consensus over time
0%25%50%75%100%12 Oct, 10:5912 Oct, 19:13
  • Avalanche (AVAX) 29.8%
  • Solana (SOL) 18.6%
  • Ethereum (ETH) 17.9%
  • Cardano (ADA) 17.8%

My view, for what a column is worth: this is a vote for being underpriced, not for winning. Ethereum is the incumbent, and incumbents rarely excite anyone with money to spend, because there's no upside left to imagine. Avalanche is the stock you buy because nobody at the dinner party owns it. In my opinion that's a sentiment trade wearing a fundamentals suit, and the suit fits rather well.

Pixel-art avalanche of coins sweeping past a grand building and a fast train while suited onlookers watch from a ridge.
The outsider arrives early and takes the window seat.

The next thing to watch is whether Solana's backers regroup, or whether Ethereum's holders work out that someone has to defend the incumbent. A verdict reached in under a day can be overturned just as fast. If you think the crowd has mispriced the mountain, the market is still open on Morfi and you can join it. Bring your conviction, and leave the exclamation marks at home.