Super Bowl Ad War: Apple's '1984' and Old Spice Are Dead Level on Day One

Let us begin, as all civilised disputes should, with a free and open contest of ideas: which sixty-second spot deserves to be crowned the greatest Super Bowl ad of all time? Trading opened less than a day ago, and already the crowd has split into camps with the fervour of a parliament that has just discovered the budget. Nostalgia, taste and hard money are all on the table.

The historical record is not short of evidence. According to Wikipedia, Apple's "1984" was directed by Ridley Scott and aired nationally only once, in a third-quarter break of Super Bowl XVIII on January 22, 1984. The same page says Advertising Age placed it at the top of its list of 50 greatest commercials, that the Clio Awards inducted it into their Hall of Fame in 1995, and that never broadcasting it again added to its mystique. Coca-Cola's "Hey Kid, Catch!" has its own case: Wikipedia reports it debuted in October 1979 on Monday Night Football, drew its biggest attention during Super Bowl XIV in 1980, won a Clio and made top-ad lists including TV Guide's. Old Spice's "The Man" is the odd one out in the paperwork, since its Wikipedia coverage describes a 2010 campaign rather than one specific Super Bowl spot.

Now the crowd. On Morfi, an opinion market where people back their views with real money, Apple "1984" and Old Spice "The Man" are tied at the top: 26% consensus for one, 26% for the other, with 10 and 11 holders respectively. Also on the ballot: 2 other sides. So far 12 unique traders have put $31,651 behind their opinions, and these are the conviction levels of the backers, not the share of people.

Here is my opinion, and I flag it as such, because Enlightenment habits die hard. The pedigree favours Apple: a single airing, an award-laden legacy and a commercial that treated the viewer as a citizen rather than a customer. That an upstart soap-and-deodorant brand can stand level with it on day one is, frankly, a triumph of the free market of taste, and I will not hear it called a scandal. Yet I confess that a one-night wonder with a Hall of Fame plaque is the sort of monument liberty-lovers ought to prize over mere repetition.

What to watch next is whether this tie survives the weekend or whether one camp pulls ahead once the Budweiser and Coca-Cola loyalists rally. Early markets are fickle, and compromise is rarely this close to breaking out. If you think the crowd has it wrong, join the market on Morfi and put your conviction where your nostalgia is.