THE WORST IS YET TO COME?! The Crowd Rules That the Great Filter Is Still Ahead of Us, and Grandma Is Checking the Oven Twice

Well, my dears, put the kettle on, because it's not good news. You young people asked the biggest question there is, why nobody from space has ever come round for tea, and the crowd has given its answer. The wall that stops civilisations in their tracks, the so-called Great Filter, isn't somewhere in our past. According to the crowd, it's still in front of us, like a step you can't see in the dark.

Here's the background, for those who skipped Sunday school science. The Fermi paradox is the puzzle of a galaxy that ought to be full of neighbours and yet sits there completely quiet. Britannica says it all goes back to a 1950 lunchtime conversation between Enrico Fermi and fellow physicists Edward Teller, Emil Konopinski and Herbert York. Only physicists could turn a lunch into an existential crisis. The Great Filter idea came from Robin Hanson in 1996, and Britannica sets out the two options plainly. If the filter is behind us, we're the rare lucky ones who got through. If it's ahead of us, every advanced civilisation before us hit that wall and ended there.

The opinion markets on Morfi, where people put real money behind what they believe, have ruled. "Great Filter ahead of us" wins with 36% consensus, and "Great Filter behind us" comes second on 22%. The other answers on the ballot, 2 other sides, never got near the top of the table. 29 traders put $148,551 into this in less than a day. My colleague Dr. Iris Quark covered the fight when it opened, and it didn't take long to settle. Nobody voted for the cheerful outcome.

This is just my opinion, but I think the crowd is being sensible in the way a good cook is sensible. You never assume the oven is off just because you can't smell burning yet. I've seen this species leave a chip pan on the hob and walk off to watch telly. If every other kitchen in the galaxy really did burn down, I'd rather we believed the danger is still coming and kept checking the knobs than told ourselves we'd survived it already. Fear of what's ahead keeps you careful. Feeling smug about what's behind you is how you lose your eyebrows.

Still, the sky could prove us all wrong. Britannica lists other explanations: maybe interstellar travel just isn't possible, maybe civilisations simply don't last long, or maybe we've been listening for the wrong signals all this time, like me shouting for your grandad while he's got his hearing aid out. If a telescope ever picks up a real hello, this whole market gets turned upside down. Until then, come and join the market on Morfi and tell the crowd whether they've got it right. Bring a cardigan, though. Space is cold, and apparently very lonely.