Gather close, seekers, and mind the candle wax. I laid out the tarot on the oldest question in the crypto bazaar, whether Bitcoin goes up or down, and the first card I turned over was the Tower, lightning and all. The crowd has delivered its verdict on day one: the bears take the crown, and the bulls are left stamping their hooves in the fog.

The mists of 2026 have not been kind to the gold coin of the internet. According to Euronews, early June saw Bitcoin sink to the low sixty-thousands as long-term holders dumped billions and spot ETFs bled for thirteen days straight. Then came the resurrection: late August brought a short squeeze and a Washington warm embrace that pushed it toward eighty thousand. And in mid-September, Euronews reports, it slid back under seventy-six thousand when the Senate left the CLARITY Act eleven votes short of sixty. The latest omen, an ABC market snapshot from October 13, put it in the low eighty-thousands, nudging upward on the day.

So the price has crept back toward the heights, and still the crowd at Morfi's opinion markets peers into the glass and sees doom. Down holds 60% consensus, Up trails at 40%, with 36 traders putting $55,754 behind their convictions in less than a day of trading. Remember, dear ones, these are levels of conviction, not a headcount: they measure how strongly the crowd backs each side, not how many hands went up.

Where the crowd stands
  • Down60%
  • Up40%

It isn't the first time I've watched this coin on the cooking fire either. My colleague Chef Basil Brawl saw it take an early lead over Solana in his one-day crypto cook-off, back when the old roast still smelled of victory. Tonight's smoke smells more like burnt toast.

Pixel-art crystal ball with a gold coin falling into dark mist, a bear shadow behind it and a faint bull at the edge.
The orb shows a bear in the fog. The bull swears it's just a reflection.

Now for my own prophecy, and it is purely opinion, whispered over the incense. I think the bears are reading last season's tea leaves. The crowd remembers June's bloodbath and September's Senate snub, yet the coin has climbed back regardless of both. A crowd this gloomy, this early, is exactly the kind of thing a short squeeze dreams about, and the August chapter of this very saga shows what happens to shorts when the wind turns. My crystal ball sees bears sitting on a trapdoor. Then again, my crystal ball also once told me to buy a timeshare.

What should you watch for in the smoke? Exchange-traded fund flows, any fresh life for crypto legislation in Washington, and whether the long-term holders start cashing out again. The market has barely opened and the cards can still be reshuffled. Join the market on Morfi, back your own omen with real money, and find out whether the Tower falls or the Star rises.

Consensus over time
0%25%50%75%100%13 Oct, 14:0913 Oct, 20:14
  • Down 59.9%
  • Up 40.1%