The ring bell just rang. Less than a day ago a new opinion market opened on Morfi with a question crypto has been asking for years: will the U.S. Congress pass a comprehensive federal crypto market-structure bill and get it signed into law by December 31, 2026?
Right now the optimists are ahead. "Yes, passes major bill" leads at 37% consensus with 9 holders behind it. The doubters haven't gone anywhere, though: "No, fails to pass major bill" sits at 32% consensus with 7 holders betting that Washington drops the ball again. Also on the ballot: 1.
The rules are strict. Agency proposals don't count. Committee approval doesn't count. Executive announcements and splashy press conferences don't count either. A bill has to clear Congress and get signed into law, or this market resolves NO. That's a high bar, and it's why the fight could get messy.
So far 11 unique traders have jumped in, putting $12,469 behind their opinions. That's a lot of conviction for a market that's still in its first day. In our opinion, the early leaders are betting that lawmakers are tired of leaving crypto in limbo. The skeptics are betting on the oldest tradition in D.C., which is running out the clock.
Things are still early, and early consensus can flip quickly. Do you think Congress gets it done, or will 2026 end with another pile of drafts and nothing signed? The numbers above come from live opinion markets on Morfi, where people back their views with real money. You can join the market and pick a side before the crowd makes up its mind.