The verdict is in. Asked which path could rapidly create a billionaire, the crowd on Morfi's opinion markets has chosen "Crypto coin breakout" at 47% consensus. Patience, it seems, is not a strategy anyone in this market intends to try.

Where the crowd stands
  • Crypto coin breakout47%
  • Other high-growth business21%
  • Cancer drug breakthrough16%
  • AI company or model surge16%

In second place sits "Other high-growth business" at 21%. That is the catch-all for anyone who believes fortunes can still be built by selling something, which these days counts as a fairly radical position. Also on the ballot: 2 other sides.

The more sober contenders, the artificial intelligence surge and the cancer-drug breakthrough, have been politely sent to the waiting room. A new oncology drug takes years of trials and regulatory paperwork. A coin needs a logo and a long weekend. My colleague Rex Ledger flagged the coin's early lead, and the crowd has now signed off on it.

The turnout: 20 unique traders put $53,845 behind their opinions, and the market opened less than a day ago. In other words, the crowd took less time to settle the fastest route to a billion than most people spend reading a cryptocurrency white paper, assuming anyone reads those.

Pixel-art gold coin rocket racing ahead of a van while a scientist and robot climb stairs
The coin takes the express, and medicine takes the stairs, as usual.

For clarity, this is a consensus reading of conviction, not a guarantee of anyone's bank balance. Want to say the lab coats deserve a recount? You can join the market on Morfi and put your money where your thesis is. I'm told losses there also arrive quickly.

Consensus over time
0%25%50%75%100%12 Oct, 00:4812 Oct, 01:24
  • Crypto coin breakout 46.6%
  • Other high-growth business 21%
  • Cancer drug breakthrough 16.3%
  • AI company or model surge 16.2%