Crowd Rules Bitcoin Has Not Hit Bottom Yet, and the Floor Is Told to Bring Its Own Paperwork

The crowd has ruled, and it has ruled against the floor. In the Morfi opinion market asking whether Bitcoin has likely bottomed already, "No, further downside possible" has come out ahead of "Yes, bottom already formed." Not even a full day of trading went by before the crowd decided that a long climb back up is no proof of a basement. Nobody expected a market of crypto traders to sound this careful, which may be the most bullish signal of the year.

The background helps explain the caution. According to the research brief, Bitcoin peaked at roughly a hundred and twenty-six thousand dollars in October 2025 and then slid well into 2026. Euronews reported that in early June the coin dropped to about sixty-one thousand dollars, its weakest level since February. Long-term holders whose coins had sat untouched for months began selling hard, and US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded their thirteenth straight day of outflows. When the patient money heads for the exit, the rest of the room tends to notice.

Since then the price has recovered some ground. An ABC market snapshot on October 14 had Bitcoin at around eighty-three and a half thousand dollars, comfortably above the June low and nowhere near the peak. That leaves both camps with a case. One sees a bottom already printed in June. The other sees a halfway house with the lights still on.

The numbers favour the halfway house. "No, further downside possible" closes at 69% consensus, against 31% for "Yes, bottom already formed," with 18 traders putting $1,246,852 behind their opinions. That is a clear lead in a straight two-way fight. It is also a reversal of mood from the doomer-versus-degen standoff my colleague Hodl Hannah described in her report on the bottom brawl, when the floor still had plenty of believers.

My view, and it is only a view: the crowd has read the history books, and one book in particular. An SEC filing notes that in the 2021–2022 cycle Bitcoin went from its peak to a drawdown of more than three-quarters before it found the floor, and that such boom-and-bust episodes have repeated throughout its history. Measured against that, June looks less like a bottom and more like a stretch on the way down. No source can say whether the low is in, so the crowd has done what markets do with uncertainty and priced it as more pain. I find that sensible, which in crypto counts as a radical position.

Watch ETF flows and long-term holder behaviour next. If the patient money keeps buying and holding, the floor camp will want a rematch. The market is still open on Morfi for anyone who wants to back the bottom or keep betting on the trapdoor. Participation is voluntary. Losses, as ever, are personal.