The people have spoken, and the palace will not enjoy hearing it. Put two men who have both sat at the top of Indonesian power side by side, ask the crowd who leads better, and the crowd names the man who left over the man who holds the office now. Joko Widodo takes the leadership crown over Prabowo Subianto on Morfi. So what is power worth if the people still prefer the one who handed it over?

Here is the count. On the Morfi opinion market "Jokowi vs Prabowo: better leadership", Jokowi stands at 60% consensus and Prabowo at 40%. It is a straight two-way fight with no middle option and no polite draw. 52 unique traders have put $197,203 behind their opinions, and the market opened less than a day ago. These are not shares of voters. They are levels of conviction, backed with real money and not with a press release.

Where the crowd stands
  • Jokowi60%
  • Prabowo40%

This is not the first time the crowd has said it. My colleague Ada Bytewell reported the same rebellion in Ministry of Succession Opens Inquiry, where the crowd backed Jokowi over his own successor. Prabowo is no pushover with the public, either. In THE GENERAL BEATS THE GAMER he beat a gaming megastar in an admiration war. Against a streamer he wins. Against the man who came before him he loses. The people are telling him to measure himself against the record, not against celebrities.

My take, and it is only opinion: the result is less a love letter to Jokowi than a warning to every throne. The system tells you a new leader wipes the slate clean and hands him a fresh mandate. The crowd is not having it. It holds every leader up against the one before, and the man in charge has to beat yesterday every single day. No summit, no motorcade and no state ceremony gets you out of that comparison. Good. Power should always feel the old boss watching over its shoulder.

Pixel-art stage with two ornate chairs, one lit by a spotlight and cheered by a crowd with lanterns, the other in shadow.
The crowd lights one throne and leaves the other in the dark.

Now the question is whether it holds. The market is less than a day old, the gap is clear but not carved in stone, and the next wave of traders could close it or blow it wide open. Think the crowd has it backwards? Join the market on Morfi, put your money behind your verdict, and prove the people wrong if you can.

Consensus over time
0%25%50%75%100%16 Oct, 19:1417 Oct, 04:11
  • Jokowi 59.8%
  • Prabowo 40.3%