THE HERD HAS SPOKEN: Jokowi Claims the Waterhole as Indonesia's Greatest President

Hush now. Out on the savannah of public opinion, the herd has stopped grazing and lifted its head. Somewhere between the first light and the first coffee, a great question was put to the crowd: which Indonesian president best deserves the title of all time? And, remarkably quickly, an answer has stepped out of the long grass.

It is a crowded habitat. Indonesia has had eight presidents since independence, and the contenders here span whole ecosystems. According to Wikipedia's entry on Sukarno, he served from 1945 to 1967, declared independence alongside Mohammad Hatta, then introduced an authoritarian system called Guided Democracy in 1959. He ended his days under house arrest. His successor, per Wikipedia's entry on Suharto, ruled until 1998, a span of more than three decades. During that time inflation fell from over 650% to price stability by 1969, and he earned the title 'Father of Development'. Assessments of each leader, the brief notes, remain sharply divided, especially over authoritarian rule and human rights.

And yet the herd has not gone looking among the ancients. On Morfi, an opinion market where real people back their views with real money, Joko Widodo leads with 58% consensus. Prabowo Subianto, the current president, follows as runner-up at 23%. Remember, these figures measure the crowd's conviction, not a headcount of voters.

The full gathering numbers 13 unique traders, with $77,901 placed behind their opinions. Also on the ballot: 4 other sides. Trading opened less than a day ago, so what we are watching is a young herd, still sniffing the wind. We saw this same early stirring when Ada Bytewell tracked Jokowi's early crown, with Prabowo pressing close in silver.

My own opinion, offered softly from behind the binoculars: the crowd is behaving like any animal that favours the waterhole it drank at yesterday. Recent memory is a powerful thing. The founding father and the long-reigning strongman carry grand medals and heavy shadows, and the crowd, it seems, would rather crown the leader it has actually watched. Is that wisdom or nostalgia's opposite? I lean toward the latter, and I suspect history will want a recount.

What to watch next: whether Prabowo, still early in a presidency that began in October 2024, closes the gap, and whether the elder statesmen mount a late charge from the treeline. Every market this young is a restless one. If you have a view on Indonesia's greatest, step into the clearing and join the market on Morfi.