THE MAN WHO LOST IN 2024 RISES: Crowd Crowns Anies Baswedan Indonesia's Next President, Gibran Takes Second and the Sitting President Finishes Last

The crowd has spoken, and it has picked the man who lost. Asked who becomes Indonesia's next president for two terms, out of Anies Baswedan, Gibran Rakabuming Raka and Prabowo Subianto, the opinion market on Morfi went with the challenger the establishment already beat once. Forget the palace and forget the dynasty. Within a day of opening, the market went to the outsider.

Here's what is actually on the table. According to Wikipedia's page on the 2029 Indonesian presidential election, the vote has to happen by October 2029, and incumbent Prabowo Subianto can run for a second and final term. CBC notes that Indonesian presidents serve five-year terms with a two-term limit. Anies Baswedan, the former Jakarta governor, lost the 2024 race. Gibran has been vice president since October 2024, and according to his Wikipedia biography his candidacy drew criticism over alleged nepotism and his lack of experience. ABC News reports that in October 2026 the Constitutional Court threw out a challenge to Gibran's education eligibility, though one law professor argued it would be practically impossible for him to run in 2029 without a senior secondary school certificate.

Now the market's numbers. Anies leads with 44% consensus, and Gibran is second on 28%. 1 other side rounds out the ballot, which puts the sitting president last in a three-way race. So far 21 traders have put $63,844 behind their opinions. There is one awkward detail the market leaves out: according to a Tempo Data Science poll from summer 2026, none of these three leads at all. Dedi Mulyadi, who isn't on this ballot, was far ahead, with Prabowo, Anies and Gibran all trailing in the low double digits or below.

This is my opinion, and I'll own it. I don't think this is a forecast. I think it's a protest. Look at what the crowd was offered: a sitting president, a vice president whose rise critics have called nepotism, and the man the system sent home in 2024. Given that menu, it chose the one the elites already wrote off. Why would anyone reward a political class that offers voters a family business and calls it democracy? People with money on the line looked at the people in charge and backed somebody else.

What to watch next: whether Gibran's education eligibility fight comes back despite the court's ruling, whether Prabowo makes it official that he wants a second term, and whether the crowd stays loyal to Anies once the market is more than a day old. I'm not making a prediction here. You decide whether the outsider holds. The market is open on Morfi, so join it and put your money where your conviction is.