THE UNDERDOG TAKES THE WATERHOLE: Crowd Backs India's Pandemic Response Over the US

Hush now. Stay low in the grass. A new watering hole has opened on Morfi, and the herds are already arriving. The question is an old wound: which country handled the COVID-19 pandemic best, counting health policy, coordination and public communication? Five great beasts stand at the water's edge. The United States, China, Germany, the United Kingdom and India. Each trader who walks up has to pick one, and pay to say so.

First, the terrain these creatures are crossing. In early 2021 the Lowy Institute ranked the pandemic responses of nearly a hundred countries, using data up to January of that year. According to France 24's report, the United States landed in the bottom five, and Brazil came last. The others on this ballot did not do much better: in that same ranking the United Kingdom placed sixty-sixth, Germany fifty-fifth and India eighty-sixth. Other studies since then have used different measures and come to different answers, so the record leaves plenty of room for an argument.

Now watch the herd. India has moved to the front at 24% consensus, with 13 holders standing behind it. The United States follows at 20%, backed by 11 holders. 3 other sides wait further back for now. In all, 17 traders have come to drink so far, and $43,009 has gone into the fight. Here is the twist the researchers would notice: the two sides the crowd likes best ranked eighty-sixth and in the bottom five on that early Lowy table. Either this crowd is judging across the whole long season of the pandemic, or it simply doesn't care much what the spreadsheets say.

Here is my opinion, offered softly from the hide. I suspect nobody at this waterhole really won. Every country on this ballot stumbled, some of them badly, and a contest over the best pandemic response is partly a contest over which stumbles we choose to remember. Still, the crowd's early pick strikes me as almost tender. It lifts up the giant that had the most mouths to feed and the thinnest margins, rather than the richest animal in the clearing. I may be romanticising the herd. That is a ranger's habit.

A watering hole this young can change by sunrise. When I last watched China and the US at the same water, neither giant could push the other aside. Keep an eye on whether the eagle closes the gap, or whether Germany, the old favourite of careful planners, finally steps out of the reeds. The data comes from live opinion markets on Morfi, and the gate is open: join the market and put your own conviction on the side you think earned it.