Arnold Steals the First Dance in the Action-Hero War, Stallone Left Shadowboxing

Dim the lights and drop the needle, lovers, because the oldest flame in Hollywood just caught fire again. Two men with biceps like ballads and one-liners like love letters, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Sylvester Stallone, are back on the same dance floor, and the crowd has to choose who takes it home. This market opened less than a day ago and hearts are already being picked up off the floor.

This rivalry goes way back. They were the two biggest action stars of the 1980s, and back then they made no secret of it. Stallone's story reads like a torch song: according to Britannica, he wrote the Rocky script after watching a Muhammad Ali fight and insisted on playing the lead himself. Rocky became the highest-grossing film of 1976 and earned him Academy Award nominations for acting and for the screenplay. Wikipedia notes he is one of only two actors, with Harrison Ford, to have topped the box office with a number-one film in six consecutive decades, and his films have grossed more than seven billion dollars worldwide.

Arnold's story is more of a power anthem. Before he ever acted he won the Mr. Olympia title six years in a row, and according to Wikipedia his breakthrough, and his signature role, came with The Terminator in 1984. His films have reportedly grossed over five billion dollars, and then he walked off the film set and became governor of California. Both of them hit rough patches too. Commentators have called Demolition Man a comeback for Stallone after a run of flops, while Arnold's Last Action Hero was judged a disappointment despite similar grosses.

So who does the crowd want? In this opinion market on Morfi, where people put real money behind their opinions, Schwarzenegger leads at 54% consensus with 17 holders backing him. Stallone is at 46% with 15 holders still on his side. So far 17 traders have staked $51,573. Stallone has the bigger box-office total, but the crowd seems to be voting for something money doesn't measure: the Terminator's stare, the bodybuilder-turned-governor legend, a man who promised he'd be back and then kept coming back.

Here's my take, straight from the booth at two in the morning: my heart belongs to the underdog who wrote his own love song. Arnold may win the crowd tonight, but Stallone is the guy who sat down with a pen and a dream, refused to sell it unless he could play the lead, and took it all the way to the Oscars. That's not an action career, that's a serenade. Arnold is the fireworks. Sly is the slow dance you remember twenty years later. In my opinion the crowd is swooning over the spectacle, and Rocky is still running up the steps.

Watch this one closely. A market this young can turn on one late surge of backing, and a few loyal hearts could still turn this into a photo finish. If you think the Terminator deserves the crown, or you want to make sure the Italian Stallion gets his last dance, join the market on Morfi and put your money where your heart is.