The Glass Stalks the Cigarette: In a Brand-New Fight Over the Deadlier Habit, the Crowd Puts Alcohol in Front

Hush now. Keep very still. At the edge of a freshly opened clearing, two old predators are circling each other. One trails a thin ribbon of smoke. The other clinks softly as it moves. Neither has ever been kind to its prey, and tonight a herd of traders has gathered to decide which one is the more dangerous animal: alcohol or smoking.

The scientists who study these creatures can't agree on an answer, and it depends on what you measure. According to the WHO's European office, tobacco causes about one point one million deaths a year in that region, while alcohol accounts for roughly eight hundred thousand deaths a year worldwide, nearly a third of a two point six million total. Count only bodies and the cigarette looks like the bigger beast. But in a Lancet ranking led by David Nutt, which also weighed addiction and harm to society, alcohol came fifth-most harmful and tobacco only ninth. And as far back as 1999, a World Health Organization global status report stated that alcohol's burden in disability-adjusted life years exceeds tobacco's.

Now watch the herd. On Morfi's opinion markets, where people put real money behind what they believe, "Alcohol (drinking)" leads with 60% consensus across 8 holders. "Smoking (cigarettes)" trails at 40% consensus with 9 holders. So far 11 unique traders have come to drink, so to speak, and $13,299 has been staked. The crowd seems to be grazing on the Nutt-style view of harm, where wrecked livers, smashed cars and broken evenings count as much as the death toll.

Here is this ranger's opinion, whispered from behind the binoculars: I think the herd has read the tracks correctly. The cigarette is a loner. It mostly harms whoever is holding it, and it does so slowly. The bottle hunts in packs. It turns up at weddings and at roadside crashes, and it gets the whole family. But a fair observer has to admit that the death counts point the other way, and on this savanna one study rarely settles the matter.

Keep watching, because trading opened less than a day ago and young markets can stampede. If the smokers' camp starts citing mortality figures, the gap could close quickly. If you have a view on which habit does more damage, you can join the market on Morfi and back it with your own conviction. Move quietly. Both of these beasts bite.